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Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow

To: <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
From: "Graham" <[email protected]>
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 15:39:57 -0000
Importance: Normal
In-reply-to: <[email protected]>
References: <[email protected]>
Reply-to: [email protected]
Sender: [email protected]

Ok Alan

Bob has run Op on 500 a few time's, will see if he has decodes from previous runs , last night was using the 0 timer option , which gave 100% tx time with a 4 min tx cycle. no change to the power/setup ,but would of given the maximum number of decodes ...........I will ask Bob , for copy's of the previous and last nights results..

NB ^^^^^ This is one aspect of the Op system that's missing ..a data server to handle the results , if anyone wants to put something together ..be most welcome !, the data from Opera can also be combined with the ROS data mode decodes , giving quite a volume to work with ..... As to what would be useful feature's .... where would one ask ??

73 -G..

--------------------------------------------------
From: "ALAN MELIA" <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 3:12 PM
To: <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow

Thanks Graham. N6RY is a two hop so must have a reasonable S/N margin under normal condx. It is interesting there were no Euro decodes though.

Alan


--- On Fri, 9/3/12, Graham <[email protected]> wrote:

From: Graham <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
To: [email protected]
Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 14:19
Alan,

WE6XGR  500 khz
Opera   decoded  on the  west
coast  , no  decodes
showing  on the  psk-map
into   EU last  night .

G.



N1GKE    600m
OPERA    289 miles
05:02:51
K3SIW    600m
OPERA    580 miles
04:58:45
AC4IU    600m
OPERA    306 miles
04:58:44
K4RKM    600m
OPERA    585 miles
04:58:44
WE6XGR    600m
OPERA    0 miles    04:58:42
NO3M    600m
OPERA    171 miles
04:50:31
K1CF    600m
OPERA    280 miles
04:34:06
N6RY    600m
OPERA    2267 miles
04:13:33
W1VD    600m
OPERA    214 miles
03:20:09
WB2LMV    600m
OPERA    150 miles
02:39:04
W3NF    600m
OPERA    233 miles
00:07:03

Monitor: N6RY Loc DM13ID
Frequency: 0.500 MHz (600m)
Show all seen by N6RY
Last report: WE6XGR
at Fri, 09 Mar 2012 04:13:33 GMT


--------------------------------------------------
From: "ALAN MELIA" <[email protected]>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 12:59 PM
To: <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms
to follow

> Hi Jay thanks for the confirmation.....:-))
> Also the VLF effects, I have never been quite sure of
the effects down
> there.....but they should be similar. I wonder whether
the beacons will
> throw up any data about the 500kHz effects over long
distances??
>
> Alan
>
>
> --- On Fri, 9/3/12, [email protected]
<[email protected]>
wrote:
>
>> From: [email protected]
<[email protected]>
>> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major
geomagnetic storms to follow
>> To: [email protected]
>> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 12:42
>> Alan
>>
>> Thanks for the update and insight.
>>
>> Absolutely no trace of Stefan's signal in CT last
night. A
>> few nights back he was 25+ dB s/n (in 28 mHz). Long
distance
>> VLF signal levels below normal as well.
>>
>> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "ALAN MELIA"
>> <[email protected]>
>> To: <[email protected]>
>> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 5:57 AM
>> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major
geomagnetic storms
>> to follow
>>
>>
>> Hi all more geomag storming this morning. It looks
as though
>> I might have got my timing wrong. However the 56
hours to
>> the Kp=7 event is a bit slow for such a big event,
and the
>> predicted speed of that CME.
>>
>> I suspect this mornings event may be what I refered
to
>> yesterday as a "sub-storm". This occurs when the
plasma
>> cloud sweeps past Earth and some is then trapped in
a
>> "magnetic bottle" in the tail of the magnetosphere.
The
>> magnetic field becomes highly distorted and twisted
by the
>> extra hot charge. Just as in the Sun-spots this
strain is
>> relieved as the field snaps back into a lower
energy state.
>> The excess energy which is released as the field
collapses
>> is transfered to the plasma "glob". The result is
that two
>> parts of the plasma are fired off at very high
speed. one
>> towads Earth and one away from Earth (to conserve
>> momentum....a basic law of physics). This mornings
event was
>> the shock of that plasma "bullet" arriving. I
believe this
>> mornings event may have been of this nature.
>>
>> How does it affect LF? The charge from the "bullet"
is
>> injected into the ring current so tops up the
charge
>> reservoir, and this lengthens the period of excess
>> attenuation in the night-time D-layer. There is
some
>> discrepancy between the Dst estimates. The Colorado
estimate
>> is running at about -50nT whilst the Kyoto value is
around
>> -150nT. Kyoto is based on a number of ground
located
>> magnetometer observations and is prone to rather
wild
>> fluctuations, and often "overshoots". The Colorado
plot is
>> based on a calculation using the solar wind
parameters as
>> observed by the ACE satellite. From my experience I
find the
>> latter to be more useful/meaningful in terms of LF
effects.
>>
>> Overall I think this indicates a mild effect. Long
distance
>> night-time paths will be affected for a week or so.
For a
>> good indication of the progress of of the recovery,
watch
>> the Dst as it returns to around -20nT....the
indication of
>> quiet, good propagation conditions. Just before
the
>> conditions settle there can be some exceptionally
good
>> nights, probably caused by favourable
fading/multipath.
>> These are very location dependent and do not work
for
>> everyone.
>>
>> However keep watching..... NOAA predict the
possibility of
>> more X-Class flares from the current spots, with
the
>> associated CMEs.
>>
>> Good LF DXing !!
>>
>> Alan
>> G3NYK
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>





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