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Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow

To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
From: ALAN MELIA <[email protected]>
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 15:12:48 +0000 (GMT)
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Thanks Graham. N6RY is a two hop so must have a reasonable S/N margin under 
normal condx. It is interesting there were no Euro decodes though.

Alan


--- On Fri, 9/3/12, Graham <[email protected]> wrote:

> From: Graham <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 14:19
> Alan,
> 
> WE6XGR  500 khz 
> Opera   decoded  on the  west 
> coast  , no  decodes 
> showing  on the  psk-map 
> into   EU last  night .
> 
> G.
> 
> 
> 
> N1GKE    600m   
> OPERA    289 miles   
> 05:02:51
> K3SIW    600m   
> OPERA    580 miles   
> 04:58:45
> AC4IU    600m   
> OPERA    306 miles   
> 04:58:44
> K4RKM    600m   
> OPERA    585 miles   
> 04:58:44
> WE6XGR    600m   
> OPERA    0 miles    04:58:42
> NO3M    600m   
> OPERA    171 miles   
> 04:50:31
> K1CF    600m   
> OPERA    280 miles   
> 04:34:06
> N6RY    600m   
> OPERA    2267 miles   
> 04:13:33
> W1VD    600m   
> OPERA    214 miles   
> 03:20:09
> WB2LMV    600m   
> OPERA    150 miles   
> 02:39:04
> W3NF    600m   
> OPERA    233 miles   
> 00:07:03
> 
> Monitor: N6RY Loc DM13ID
> Frequency: 0.500 MHz (600m)
> Show all seen by N6RY
> Last report: WE6XGR
> at Fri, 09 Mar 2012 04:13:33 GMT
> 
> 
> --------------------------------------------------
> From: "ALAN MELIA" <[email protected]>
> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 12:59 PM
> To: <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms
> to follow
> 
> > Hi Jay thanks for the confirmation.....:-))
> > Also the VLF effects, I have never been quite sure of
> the effects down 
> > there.....but they should be similar. I wonder whether
> the beacons will 
> > throw up any data about the 500kHz effects over long
> distances??
> >
> > Alan
> >
> >
> > --- On Fri, 9/3/12, [email protected]
> <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> >
> >> From: [email protected]
> <[email protected]>
> >> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major
> geomagnetic storms to follow
> >> To: [email protected]
> >> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 12:42
> >> Alan
> >>
> >> Thanks for the update and insight.
> >>
> >> Absolutely no trace of Stefan's signal in CT last
> night. A
> >> few nights back he was 25+ dB s/n (in 28 mHz). Long
> distance
> >> VLF signal levels below normal as well.
> >>
> >> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
> >>
> >>
> >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "ALAN MELIA" 
> >> <[email protected]>
> >> To: <[email protected]>
> >> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 5:57 AM
> >> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major
> geomagnetic storms
> >> to follow
> >>
> >>
> >> Hi all more geomag storming this morning. It looks
> as though
> >> I might have got my timing wrong. However the 56
> hours to
> >> the Kp=7 event is a bit slow for such a big event,
> and the
> >> predicted speed of that CME.
> >>
> >> I suspect this mornings event may be what I refered
> to
> >> yesterday as a "sub-storm". This occurs when the
> plasma
> >> cloud sweeps past Earth and some is then trapped in
> a
> >> "magnetic bottle" in the tail of the magnetosphere.
> The
> >> magnetic field becomes highly distorted and twisted
> by the
> >> extra hot charge. Just as in the Sun-spots this
> strain is
> >> relieved as the field snaps back into a lower
> energy state.
> >> The excess energy which is released as the field
> collapses
> >> is transfered to the plasma "glob". The result is
> that two
> >> parts of the plasma are fired off at very high
> speed. one
> >> towads Earth and one away from Earth (to conserve
> >> momentum....a basic law of physics). This mornings
> event was
> >> the shock of that plasma "bullet" arriving. I
> believe this
> >> mornings event may have been of this nature.
> >>
> >> How does it affect LF? The charge from the "bullet"
> is
> >> injected into the ring current so tops up the
> charge
> >> reservoir, and this lengthens the period of excess
> >> attenuation in the night-time D-layer. There is
> some
> >> discrepancy between the Dst estimates. The Colorado
> estimate
> >> is running at about -50nT whilst the Kyoto value is
> around
> >> -150nT. Kyoto is based on a number of ground
> located
> >> magnetometer observations and is prone to rather
> wild
> >> fluctuations, and often "overshoots". The Colorado
> plot is
> >> based on a calculation using the solar wind
> parameters as
> >> observed by the ACE satellite. From my experience I
> find the
> >> latter to be more useful/meaningful in terms of LF
> effects.
> >>
> >> Overall I think this indicates a mild effect. Long
> distance
> >> night-time paths will be affected for a week or so.
> For a
> >> good indication of the progress of of the recovery,
> watch
> >> the Dst as it returns to around -20nT....the
> indication of
> >> quiet, good propagation conditions. Just before
> the
> >> conditions settle there can be some exceptionally
> good
> >> nights, probably caused by favourable
> fading/multipath.
> >> These are very location dependent and do not work
> for
> >> everyone.
> >>
> >> However keep watching..... NOAA predict the
> possibility of
> >> more X-Class flares from the current spots, with
> the
> >> associated CMEs.
> >>
> >> Good LF DXing !!
> >>
> >> Alan
> >> G3NYK
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> > 
> 
>


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