Given a 3 hour VO/VK window,


http://abelian.org/ebnaut/calc.php?sndb=15&snbws=92e-6&code=16K21&sp=10&L=1&nc=5&submit=1

shows you need to reach 15dB S/N in 92uHz to get a 5 char message
across, and


http://abelian.org/ebnaut/calc.php?sndb=12.5&snbws=92e-6&code=16K21&sp=12.5&L=1&nc=3&submit=1

12.5dB for a 3 char message.

This assumes the path remains stable for 3 hours which is probably
optimistic.

A 2 char message with 14 second symbols needs S/N 11dB in 92uHz.

Everything hinges on that carrier measurement.

Markus wrote:

> Fewer and weaker decodes than the night before:

Here it was better than the previous night,

VO1NA 2015-12-01/02 8K19A 2S 5C

 start  Eb/N0  BER    rank

 19:00    1.0  35.2%  684
 20:00    3.4  30.7%  0
 20:30   13.0   6.5%  0
 21:00   10.4  12.9%  0
 21:30   11.4  10.4%  0
 22:00    9.2  16.2%  0
 22:30   11.7   9.6%  0
 23:00   14.0   4.3%  0
 23:30   12.6   7.2%  0
 00:00    6.5  23.6%  0
 00:30   10.5  12.7%  0
 01:00    0.2  36.3%  6893
 01:30    8.3  18.8%  0
 02:00    4.5  28.3%  0
 02:30   -1.0  38.1%  47236
 05:00    4.2  29.1%  0
 05:30   11.0  11.3%  0
 06:00    4.5  28.3%  0
 07:00    7.2  21.7%  0
 08:00    7.2  21.7%  0
 08:30    6.3  24.0%  0
 09:00    0.2  36.3%  84968

--
Paul Nicholson
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