Re: LF: Beacon to the west

["Alan Melia" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>]

Hi Stefan it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions from sporadic 
"catches" but shall we say that there is nothing that seems to disprove it. 
:-))
I am processing data on the path from CFH Halifax in 2003, before I "saw the 
light". This shows a distinct "edge".......so that when the Dst is low (say 
<-60nT ) there are no periods of good strength reception. The higher the Dst 
the more likely there will be a good night and the lonnger the good period 
will be. However picking a night with a higher level of Dst does not ensure 
good reception but does make it more probable. I am now looking at details 
of selected nights to see if I can determine a relationship to the better 
conditions.
I feel a bit like a weather forecaster predicting "sunny periods with 
showers, some gusty winds, a little snow in places, accompanied by the odd 
thunderstorm"  :-))  i.e. "I don't know, but there will be "weather"......."
Alan
G3NYK

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Stefan Schäfer" <Stefan.Schaefer@iup.uni-heidelberg.de>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 10:01 PM
Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west


> Jay, Alan, Mark, LF,
>
> Thanks for the discussion and for watching. KU7Z, that sounds like a 
> challenge! Not sure if i can make that path in this time of the year. But 
> we never know...
> Alan, did you get more informations which confirm or deny your theory 
> since the Venezuela grabber is available?
> 73, Stefan
>
>
> Am 20.02.2013 16:44, schrieb Alan Melia:
> > Thanks for that Jay I will factor that into my musings   :-))
> > I think that is within the range I have been considering.....so that is 
> > very useful data.
> > You put the finger on the difficulty of knowing how much the local noise 
> > level has shifted, but this is where your long experience is an 
> > advantage.
> > I have a vast amount of data the problem is thinking of a way of 
> > displaying it that will stimulate some new ideas.....plenty to fill my 
> > waking hours :-))
> > Alan
> > G3NYK
> > ----- Original Message ----- From: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
> > To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 3:01 PM
> > Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
> >
> >
> > > Alan
> > >
> > > Thanks for your comments.
> > >
> > > Based on Spectrum Lab's s/n measurement, along with that of WSPR, I 
> > > would say that we are in a period where signals are down roughly 6 - 10 
> > > dB on the EU > NA T/A path as compared to a month ago. There have been a 
> > > few nights where the noise floor was elevated due to thunderstorms in 
> > > the US but I am not including them in my observation.
> > > Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
> > >
> > > p.s. I rarely use Argo any more since it is virtually impossible to 
> > > determine s/n of the received signals.
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message ----- From: "Alan Melia" 
> > > <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
> > > To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 9:32 AM
> > > Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
> > >
> > >
> > > > Hi Jay I am still pondering this, plotting Dst against "period receive 
> > > > signal exceeds xdB" gives a interesting but not very illumination 
> > > > picture. It provides a cut off when theDstis depressed, but it shows a 
> > > > wide range of received signals when the Dst is high (towards zero nT). 
> > > > I am still looking for another factor.
> > > > By "quiet period" I mean Kp <2 for 10 days or more.... really quiet 
> > > > geomagnetically and signal levels seem to be unexpectedly poor. Then 
> > > > signals seem to improve after a low level event say Kp=4 . That led to 
> > > > my idea of ionospheric "leak".
> > > > However taking a quick look at the recent conditions, things look 
> > > > active enough to be "normal". It is very confusing but I am looking to 
> > > > see if it could be explained by just an unfavourable path 
> > > > length/fading. Unfortunately one needs several stations in different 
> > > > location to either tranmit, or several receiving stations to receive 
> > > > the same signal to see the effect of this. If some paths are 
> > > > unfavouable other should be favoured.
> > > > One problem also is I do not know what a "subjectively" worse signal 
> > > > means, does it mean 10dB ?? Most likely not waterfal displays are very 
> > > > non-linear so it might only be a dB or two. That could easily be 
> > > > expained by a fading pattern involving say three different hop modes.
> > > > There was a grab recently that shoed Stefan and Markus. Markus was 
> > > > fading to a "ragged" trace at times whereas Stefan was solid all the 
> > > > time, though they were probably seeing similar fading conditions.
> > > > I am still not convinced that there is not some other effect but I cant 
> > > > find anything:-))  Bit like "Dark Propagation" :-))
> > > > Best Wishes
> > > > Alan
> > > > G3NYK
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message ----- From: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
> > > > To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
> > > > Cc: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>; <lowfer@mailman.qth.net>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:38 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Stefan
> > > > >
> > > > > Good copy last night ... although some dB short of the 'best' 
> > > > > conditions. Seem to recall Alan mentioning that prolonged 'quiet' 
> > > > > periods can be less favorable than those that feature some 'ups and 
> > > > > downs'. Maybe Alan will chime in.
> > > > > Representative capture below. Copy past 0800Z at 
> > > > > http://www.w1vd.com/interestinggrab.html  ... if you squint hard 
> > > > > enough.
> > > > > Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2