Hi Dave, yes you are right, it is not quite as simple as they would have you
believe :-)) Spaceweather.com always seems to over-hype events too....well
perhaps they are more interested in aurora than radio prop.
The real measure of the severity as far as LF is concerned is the Dst index.
Most only give this in retrospect but Kyoto univ and Colorado univ do real-time
estimates.....the latter is the most useful and is derived y processing data
from ACE. If the Dst is pushed down to -300 to -400nT we have a big and
prolonged event. you can follow the recovery by watching the Dst slowly rise
over the following days.
http://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html
A quick check shows a max depression to -140nT on 7th and it is already back to
-36nT...... so I confirm a minor event only :-)) levels on 136 an 500 may be
down a little but this may only be noticable on very long paths where there are
several passes through the ionosphere, each taking some extra attenuation from
the precipitated hot electrons.
You can tell I don't have to rely on Government funding for my research :-))
The end of the World is nigh!! but in around 9 billion years at my current
estimates.....but then I could just be wrong :-))
Alan
G3NYK
--- On Thu, 8/3/12, Dave Sergeant <[email protected]> wrote:
> From: Dave Sergeant <[email protected]>
> Subject: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Thursday, 8 March, 2012, 13:34
> Well it seems the media over here are
> going into overdrive (maybe they
> have been watching too many Horizon programs..).
>
> Impact arrived at 1105z, but it was North facing. I see it
> has been
> downgraded to a G1 minor storm, though the K index has risen
> to 5. The
> HF bands are still quite lively, plenty of stuff on 12m. So
> I expect
> this one is really going to be a damp squib...
>
> 73 Dave G3YMC
>
> On 8 Mar 2012 at 8:10, Warren Ziegler wrote:
>
> > http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html
> >
> > http://spaceweather.com/
> >
> > I imagine that it will take LF a while to recover from
> this!
> >
> > Time to get on vhf and work aurora propagation!
> >
> http://www.davesergeant.com
>
>
>
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