naughty replying to my own post.....of course that depression (on the 7th) was 
from the earlier CME! the one associated with the X5 arrived around 1200z but 
was a very minor event so far. It pushed the Dst up a little but no fall is 
obvious yet (1500z) there is the possibility of a sub-storm I suppose but I 
doubt this will occur. I think this indicaes the plasma glob bounced off the 
magnetosphere like two opposing magnets. So far I dont event think there will 
even be much of a southerly extension to the aurora.

Alan

--- On Thu, 8/3/12, ALAN MELIA <[email protected]> wrote:

> From: ALAN MELIA <[email protected]>
> Subject: Re: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Thursday, 8 March, 2012, 14:55
> Hi Dave, yes you are right, it is not
> quite as simple as they would have you believe :-))
> Spaceweather.com always seems to over-hype events
> too....well perhaps they are more interested in aurora than
> radio prop. 
> 
> The real measure of the severity as far as LF is concerned
> is the Dst index. Most only give this in retrospect but
> Kyoto univ and Colorado univ do real-time estimates.....the
> latter is the most useful and is derived y processing data
> from ACE. If the Dst is pushed down to -300 to -400nT we
> have a big  and prolonged event. you can follow the
> recovery by watching the Dst slowly rise over the following
> days.
> http://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html
> 
> 
> A quick check shows a max depression to -140nT on 7th and it
> is already back to -36nT...... so I confirm a minor event
> only :-)) levels on 136 an 500 may be down a little but this
> may only be noticable on very long paths where there are
> several passes through the ionosphere, each taking some
> extra attenuation from the precipitated hot electrons.
> 
> You can tell I don't have to rely on Government funding for
> my research :-))
> 
> The end of the World is nigh!! but in around 9 billion years
> at my current estimates.....but then I could just be wrong
> :-))
> 
> Alan
> G3NYK
> 
> --- On Thu, 8/3/12, Dave Sergeant <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> 
> > From: Dave Sergeant <[email protected]>
> > Subject: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic
> storms to follow
> > To: [email protected]
> > Date: Thursday, 8 March, 2012, 13:34
> > Well it seems the media over here are
> > going into overdrive (maybe they 
> > have been watching too many Horizon programs..).
> > 
> > Impact arrived at 1105z, but it was North facing. I see
> it
> > has been 
> > downgraded to a G1 minor storm, though the K index has
> risen
> > to 5. The 
> > HF bands are still quite lively, plenty of stuff on
> 12m. So
> > I expect 
> > this one is really going to be a damp squib...
> > 
> > 73 Dave G3YMC
> > 
> > On 8 Mar 2012 at 8:10, Warren Ziegler wrote:
> > 
> > > http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html
> > > 
> > > http://spaceweather.com/
> > > 
> > > I imagine that it will take LF a while to recover
> from
> > this!
> > > 
> > > Time to get on vhf and work aurora propagation!
> > >
> > http://www.davesergeant.com
> > 
> > 
> >
> 
> 
>