Roelof - sounds good - we are about 1000Kms South of PVQ here in South Central Alaska and Im sure your going to get good responses about getting into the night side ionosphere about 1400Kms from Amsterdam on that Rhum line  bearing but the sun is pretty low too so prob absorption is pretty low (perhaps - Ill leave it to the experts!) - however with the K at level and the location of the Auroral oval its going to be interesting -

We had experiences on interesting paths (more VHF and HF than LF) on being inside the auroral oval during highly disturbed periods - I was at Ward Hunt Island at 83N in March 89 (or was it 86!) on  North Pole expedition when a very large Geo storm hit - had me dismanting connectors and checking the Front end of the Military transmitters it was so so quiet. It was like being in a goldfish bowl - comms inside were actually very good, but very weak for pass crossing out and across the Oval to the South (its all to the South just about) - one way traffic or the "diode effect" I called it.

Just to let you know the Pa0rdt probe continues to work very well up there - its within a dB of the main 2 element K9AY on quiet days at 137 and sometimes does better - its odd to compare a small piece of copper clad to something that covers 0.5 acre but there you go - all very location and angle dependent of course.

Laurence KL7UK
controlled from somewhere  else.