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Re: LF: Solar activity

To: <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: LF: Solar activity
From: "Alan Melia" <[email protected]>
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 10:48:19 +0100
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Hi John thanks for that, when I posted I could not find reference to the location other than solar coordinates which confuse me :-)) I just guessed the more central spot might be the source of such a big response. Yes if its on the limb it will probably miss or be a "glancing blow". However it seems to be "winding up" again, so there are some more chances in the next few days.
The NOAA animation was almost addictive for today's event :-))

Alan
G3NYK
----- Original Message ----- From: "John Andrews" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, May 06, 2015 2:41 AM
Subject: Re: LF: Solar activity


Alan,

Looks like the X class flare was from region 2239, near the eastern limb, so a CME might be a miss.
John, W1TAG

On 5/5/2015 7:26 PM, Alan Melia wrote:
The filament event has thrown off a CME which is sheduled to impact the
magnetosphere around 1800z on the 6th. The NOAA animation is quite
dramatic and it looks like we will get it dead centre. the radio effect
of this is somewhat dependent on the direction of the field when it
arrives, but expect aurora and reduced LF signal levels from 6/7th for
some following nights.

The region numbered 2335 I think which is fairly central has thrown off
an X2.7 flare just after 2300z. Expect another possible CME arriving any
time after 2400z on the 7/8th. If both of these reconnect we could
experience long period of poor LF propagation.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction  for
the NOAA animation.

Alan
G3NYK


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