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LF: T/A condx

To: "LF-Group" <[email protected]>
Subject: LF: T/A condx
From: "Alan Melia" <[email protected]>
Date: Mon, 20 Jan 2003 23:47:24 -0000
Reply-to: [email protected]
Sender: <[email protected]>
Hi all, The Kp index rose to 5 just after midnight 20th, so I am expecting
some increase in absorption by about Wed/Thurs 22/23rd night. This should
reduce levels of night-time signals for a few days. NOAA is forecasting
unsettled geomagnetic conditions by the 22nd due a geoeffective (aiming at
us !) coronal hole. If this "burps" it means the depressed period could be
prolonged somewhat.

We need to keep an eye on Steve's log to see how bad it gets.

I think Laurie is right that closer behind a disturbance we can often ride
in on a enhancement "wave" due to constructive interference between the
different radio paths and get signals at 3 sec dot easily displayed. This Kp
increase could be a chance but I suspect it will only be a "beginers wave"
unless the Kp rises further.

We need to be careful about interpreting Steve's plots regarding UK paths.
DCF is 700 or more kms east and Steve is nearly 1000kms west of John. This
will influence the timing of the peaks and troughs he sees, and sometimes
the maximum levels. In general I believe in a relatively quiet period like
we have just had there may be little difference. When we run into a period
of more serious multi-path fading Steve's results may diverge from those
achieved by John ,Dex and Lloyd. It will be interesting to see by how much.

Cheers de Alan G3NYK
[email protected]

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