John:
My limited understanding of this subject is that we currently have a
two-dimensional view of what is obviously a three-dimensional process.
With
this limitation, it is difficult to predict the arrival time or severity
of
the effects from a CME.
I agree with your conclusions, the issue for me is however neither "arrival
time" or "severity", I just want to know if what ever is going on streams
past the Earth withing 7.5 Million miles. My second need, would be to
understand the energy level of the particles that are going my at the
closest approach to Earth, that one I feel is far beyond what might be
available information.
If an ejection occurs from the Sun's limb, it is
unlikely to be earth-directed, of course. But predictions of CME's from
the
rest of the visible side of the Sun appear to be vague, until they arrive
at
satellites in near earth orbit.
Excellent, I have a sense that the CME's can come out any odd angle fromt he
surface of the Sun, this is why I find the whole thing so confusing. The
notion of the satellites in near earth orbit is interesting, they would only
tell us what is going to clobber us, not what is going by at some distance
from us, if I have any understanding of what these satellites can detect.
Thank You for your time and efforts, if you come by anything further please
let me know about it. My interest is not short term but long term.
73 for the moment,
Larry
VA3LK
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