Rik and others,

Thanks for various comments.  Regarding path estimates:

Based on the coordinates the Saarlouis TX should be in JN39IG and

according

to the Buckmaster callbook ZL2CA is in RE78JQ.

I am actually located in RE78IR.  I do not know how Buckmaster obtains their
data, however the practical impact is minor for DX situations..

That makes the distance 18630km and direction 51 degrees for the short

path

and 21370km / 231 degrees for the long path (directions seen from Europe).
Assuming the better propagation over the night side of the earth shortpath
should occur in the EU evening (= ZL morning) and longpath in EU morning

(=

ZL evening).

The Europe 1 antennas should favour longpath, but Bob's copy (at ZL
sunrise) would be shortpath ?

73, Rik  ON7YD

As half the circumference of the globe is nominally 20000 km, then
propagation between ZL and EU does not have a lot of difference between long
and short paths.  The antipodean  positions are ZL and Portugal.  Any minor
tilt or disturbances in an "ionospheric shell" can influence the angle of
arrival for DX between EU and ZL.  For amateur LF testing, antennas are
nominally omnidirectional, so if there does turn out to be confirmed
reception, the path will have worked itself out!

73, Bob ZL2CA