Return-Path: X-Spam-DCC: paranoid 1102; Body=2 Fuz1=2 Fuz2=2 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.3 (2006-06-01) on lipkowski.org X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.3 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DNS_FROM_AHBL_RHSBL, HTML_30_40,HTML_BACKHAIR_8,HTML_MESSAGE,HTML_OBFUSCATE_05_10,SPF_PASS autolearn=no version=3.1.3 Received: from post.thorcom.com (post.thorcom.com [195.171.43.25]) by paranoid.lipkowski.org (8.13.7/8.13.7) with ESMTP id u27MAxiE029474 for ; Mon, 7 Mar 2016 23:10:59 +0100 Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1ad3JH-0007qi-C3 for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 22:07:27 +0000 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1ad3JG-0007qZ-HM for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 22:07:26 +0000 Received: from mail-vk0-x229.google.com ([2607:f8b0:400c:c05::229]) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtps (TLSv1.2:ECDHE-RSA-AES128-GCM-SHA256:128) (Exim 4.86) (envelope-from ) id 1ad3JD-0002TC-7H for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 22:07:25 +0000 Received: by mail-vk0-x229.google.com with SMTP id e6so133840983vkh.2 for ; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 14:07:22 -0800 (PST) X-DKIM-Result: Domain=gmail.com Result=Good and Known Domain DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113; h=mime-version:in-reply-to:references:date:message-id:subject:from:to; bh=6jkD4ETAApFYGuq9s0cEPo+RG+STpjC1LOju9uQoXdQ=; b=bVVpEb8D2YoSAlWpuyG7F5O6aJPfc04ayho3talOtTGIn2IEeEPMDAr9Se+QRt8kA+ 15V6decMppuH57iOAywlDSnsP+MV4bvr77OAaGjzIJQDH16fOBnsQbwYKRh+znw/oS2u xAkuFwmCvs/9z3msCJeAURzjIDvbZ4IY0C8H1qxptaqwvyBoyPUSdscDsmcs281ejS/o Ynl7oGjnl3RM9QF0xOKZbgPLJtNUvYsjYXXJAczf2Fk8wzn7k5ipy4bfFUZfqOCFg4pJ J8EiFoGM7r9L/lXAQtQnzmorQQRJmR7/FM7fY/GnV0zBKXtiWI/kvHeMFojS2Y87xLW5 VyCg== X-Google-DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=1e100.net; s=20130820; h=x-gm-message-state:mime-version:in-reply-to:references:date :message-id:subject:from:to; bh=6jkD4ETAApFYGuq9s0cEPo+RG+STpjC1LOju9uQoXdQ=; b=AvKGM/zvHf7XsrSrWxThW0tidCMpxN3pOdmtpayWbsHj5TIvic/jlLzjGODsLHOjx/ mNJzlk6cHfVg2QAJ5RTA7nThD8xnMp/DZLAbSddeg4bEd5ekHBCba0IbUgVT+MSflcdK SVI1saNzpPnM9s9qomLUTan01AdpFw1uniU7x+VEDfjsMUlsLCj4R07/4OfLUUZ1rcMs 9HJrfGIRcDJW8kDAU7FDNiPUpKg6pOjKwTaj/IiMpgMi2VLmNaJoLO3yvvaauoOFsLsy e4uqzFZjJClmlXWHf6jO/081nuaknvru7ShJD2i8AypecSd05jTDP7T7qATgKxFzKIbH n8ow== X-Gm-Message-State: AD7BkJK8/Cl/1isOTUUXMQcXJewQ/lvyQ5CcwyQun3naIQE2/nFgzGbRTXF1xDTUJmHbT23bey7FlteM+YconQ== MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Received: by 10.31.150.76 with SMTP id y73mr23366943vkd.84.1457388441056; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 14:07:21 -0800 (PST) Received: by 10.31.12.135 with HTTP; Mon, 7 Mar 2016 14:07:20 -0800 (PST) In-Reply-To: <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DDAC4@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> References: <8D3450D43313D4D-1358-E77F@webmail-vd003.sysops.aol.com> <56DC29C8.3010604@posteo.de> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD4BF@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> <56DD2595.5040506@no3m.net> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD7D8@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> <56DD5A82.70203@posteo.de> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD9C8@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> <9143839F868545288751B296FF682379@gnat> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DDAB0@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DDAC4@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2016 16:07:20 -0600 Message-ID: From: John Langridge To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Scan-Signature: f7a04ba61e021a3c0a54663834ceafe1 Subject: Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=001a114264465445e1052d7cb0d9 X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.56 on 10.1.3.11 Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 7249 --001a114264465445e1052d7cb0d9 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 I should point out that the VK3ELV --> JA event happens just about every night that Phil is QRV. Its been a season long event, not constrained by this geomagnetic event. What was abnormal from last week was that ELV, like WE2XPQ, experienced a session where 5-7 JA stations were supplying reports. That was abnormal, but 3-5 days before this geomagnetic event. 73! John KB5NJD / WG2XIQ.. On Mon, Mar 7, 2016 at 3:58 PM, Rik Strobbe wrote: > The fun might still be going on tonight, have a look at this impressive > VK-JA series: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > * 2016-03-07 19:12 VK3ELV 0.475785 -28 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU > PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 19:06 VK3ELV 0.475786 -22 0 > QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 19:02 VK3ELV > 0.475774 -24 0 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 > 18:52 VK3ELV 0.475774 -25 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 > 354 2016-03-07 18:48 VK3ELV 0.475774 -26 1 QF33bq 5 > JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 18:40 VK3ELV 0.475773 -27 > 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 18:30 VK3ELV > 0.475774 -25 0 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 > 18:26 VK3ELV 0.475774 -27 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 > 354 2016-03-07 18:16 VK3ELV 0.475774 -29 0 QF33bq 5 > JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 16:58 VK3ELV 0.475774 -23 > 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 16:40 VK3ELV > 0.475773 -28 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 354 2016-03-07 > 15:42 VK3ELV 0.475774 -29 1 QF33bq 5 JH3XCU PM95sm 8016 > 354 * > > > > 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T > ------------------------------ > *Van:* owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [ > owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] namens Rik Strobbe [ > rik.strobbe@fys.kuleuven.be] > *Verzonden:* maandag 7 maart 2016 22:47 > *Aan:* rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org > *Onderwerp:* RE: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night > > Hello Alan, > > > > thanks for your reply. > > I was just wondering if (and how) the strange propagation was correlated > to the solar events. > > Although the WSPR SNR values have to be interpreted the sharp eak at 05:02 > (-8dB at DL4RAJ) is remarkable and would be pretty close to CW copy level. > > > > 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T > > > ------------------------------ > *Van:* owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [ > owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] namens Alan Melia [ > alan.melia@btinternet.com] > *Verzonden:* maandag 7 maart 2016 15:27 > *Aan:* rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org > *Onderwerp:* Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night > > Hi Rik I looked at your initial posting and the first thing I noticed was > the Pacific DX was all before the CME impact and conditions re Dst were > good. > > I have pondered the use of WSPR for propagation research and have given up > on it at the moment. My opinion is that there are too many unknowns to > really make any worthwhile detailed predictions on the basis of a few > spots. Again I may just be being cynical (but that is the nature of "the > scientific method" :-)) ) To explain.....I feel it just as necessary to > consider no-spots as spots.......but your other message suggests that there > was a no-spot period because the TA station was not transmitting. I am also > suspicious of a cluster like you point out. I wonder if because of internet > connectivity whether one receiver says "ah WD2xyz was received a few km > away so that noise must be WD2xyz". There has also been much discussion > over the last 9 months of spots not being recorded centrally despite > attempted uploads. This may be due to s/w deficiencies or network > contention now there are so many "listeners" It would seem that more than > one central logging site is necessary, probably in different continents to > allow for these problems. Also as Andy G4JNT says there is always the > probability of "false positives" in any statistical process, and multiple > occurances are needed to reduce this probability......think the so-called > 5-sigma levels often quoted by CERN on their expeiments. I can't remember > the exact levels but 3-sigma is a probability of less than about 2 chances > in 100 observations of getting a "false positive". One would need much more > data to achieve even those levels with WSPR spots. > > On the other hand there is the possibility that the early morning spots > are the result of the "hot electron" aborption from the precipitated > electrons killing the manmade night-time noise early, and the range (3 or 4 > night-time hops) just happening to add constructively. also the result of > the impact around 00:00z distorts the envelope of the magnetosphere. This > could quite possibly lead lead to a foussing effect or > favourable constructive fading. > > In conclusion .....I dont know!! but these occasions are always > interesting and fun :-)) > > Alan > G3NYK > > > ----- Original Message ----- > *From:* Rik Strobbe > *To:* rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org > *Sent:* Monday, March 07, 2016 12:51 PM > *Subject:* RE: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night > > Hi Stefan, all, > > > > to get the facts right: there were many other EU's "listening" at that > time (> 30), but any one (you) at less than 500 km from the JN68 group. > > So it's not sure how focussed the propagation was. But is nevertheless > remarkable that serval other Eu's that are known to have "good ears > " didn't copy any TA last night. > > > > BTW, in my earlier list I did miss the 05:02 UTC copy at DL4RAJ, the > complete sequence is: > > > > *2016-03-07 04:40 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33 * > > > > > > * 2016-03-07 04:52 WG2XXM 0.475711 -30 0 EM15lj 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 8406 40 > 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -8 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33 > 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -16 0 DM33xt 5 DH5RAE JN68qv 9352 33 > 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -22 0 DM33xt 5 DJ0ABR JN68nt 9346 33 > 2016-03-07 05:12 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33 * > > *2016-03-07 05:00 WG2XKA 0.475723 -25 0 FN33lq 1 DL4RAJ JN68kj 6292 53 * > > > > It seems that the propagation peaked at +/- 05:00 UTC. > > The fact that DL4RAJ copied most of it is probably due to his "good ears" > (last night DL4RAJ had 6 copies of EA5DOM, while just 1 for DJ0ABR and nil > for DH5RAE). > > > > Maybe G3NYK and/or PA0RDT can link strange propagation this to some > propagation mechanism / solar event? > > > > 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T > > > ------------------------------ > *Van:* owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [ > owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] namens DK7FC [selberdenken@posteo.de] > *Verzonden:* maandag 7 maart 2016 11:40 > *Aan:* rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org > *Onderwerp:* Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night > > Wow, very impressive. > As we saw in the past, JN68 is a special field... > > The dst plot showed a dramatical dip. On LF we think that propagation must > be down for days but on MF i thought there can be miracles. Thus i started > the TX over the night. And see here, the miracle happened! > > 73, Stefan > > Am 07.03.2016 09:15, schrieb Rik Strobbe: > > I just noticed very strange TA propagation on MF last night: > > > > During a very short period (04:40 - 05:02) 3 US stations were copied > in southern Germany, but nowhere else in Europe: > > > > *2016-03-07 04:40 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33 * > > > > * 2016-03-07 > 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -16 0 DM33xt 5 DH5RAE JN68qv 9352 33 > 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -22 > 0 DM33xt 5 DJ0ABR JN68nt 9346 33 2016-03-07 04:52 WG2XXM 0.475711 > -30 0 EM15lj 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 8406 40 2016-03-07 > 05:00 WG2XKA 0.475723 -25 0 FN33lq 1 DL4RAJ JN68kj 6292 53 * > > > > The signals were partially very strong (up to -16dB) and the 3 EU stations > are located close together. > > Also the distances are remarkable, up to 9367 km. > > Based on WSPRNET data at least a dozen other stations were receiving WSPR > in Western Europe at that time, but not a single copy from them! > > > > During the same time period one German station was copied in the US: > > > > > > > *2016-03-07 04:54 DK7FC 0.475682 -26 > 0 JN49ik 1 WA3TTS/2 EN90xn 6636 298 2016-03-07 > 05:04 DK7FC 0.475682 -20 0 JN49ik 1 WG2XJM EN91wr 6557 299 > 2016-03-07 05:04 DK7FC 0.475684 -17 0 JN49ik 1 WE2XGR FN31ls 6099 > 295 2016-03-07 05:14 DK7FC 0.475680 -22 > 1 JN49ik 1 WG2XKA FN33lq 5970 297* > > > > Further there was also some trans Pacific DX: > > > > Hawaii-Australia: > > > > > > *2016-03-06 10:36 WH2XCR 0.475798 -31 > 0 BL11je 1 VK2XGJ QF55jl 8278 222 2016-03-06 15:12 VK4YB 0.475617 > -24 -1 QG62ku 5 WH2XCR BL11je 7597 50 2016-03-06 > 15:06 WH2XCR 0.475798 -26 0 BL11je 1 VK4YB QG62ku 7597 227 * > > > > Australia-Japan: > > > > *2016-03-06 15:08 VK3ELV 0.475775 -27 > 1 QF33bq 5 JH1INM PM95iq 8043 354 * > > > > Hawaii-mainland US: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > *2016-03-06 07:58 WG2XKA 0.475724 -28 > 0 FN33lq 1 WH2XCR BL11je 7945 282 2016-03-06 > 08:02 WH2XCR 0.475798 -27 -1 BL11je 1 WG2XJM EN91wr 7413 52 > 2016-03-06 07:48 WG2XJM 0.475782 -22 > -1 EN91wr 5 WH2XCR BL11je 7413 278 2016-03-06 > 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -30 0 BL11je 1 SWL/K9 EN61 6844 53 > 2016-03-06 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -28 > 0 BL11je 1 WB0VAK EN34ia 6328 50 2016-03-06 07:58 WG2XWS 0.475792 > -19 0 DH89 1 WA3TTS/2 EN90xn 6153 21 2016-03-06 > 07:58 WG2XWS 0.475652 -23 0 DH89 1 WB0VAK EN34ia 6144 9 > 2016-03-06 07:34 WG2XIQ 0.475611 -18 > 0 EM12mp 5 WH2XCR BL11je 6030 274 2016-03-06 > 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475799 -27 0 BL11je 1 WG2XIQ EM12 6023 65 > 2016-03-06 07:34 WG2XXM 0.475712 -13 > -1 EM15lj 5 WH2XCR BL11je 6007 272 2016-03-06 > 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -28 0 BL11je 1 WG2XXM EM15lj 6007 61 * > > > > 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T > > --001a114264465445e1052d7cb0d9 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
I should point out that the VK3ELV --> JA event ha= ppens just about every night that Phil is QRV.=C2=A0 Its been a season long= event, not constrained by this geomagnetic event.=C2=A0 What was abnormal = from last week was that ELV, like WE2XPQ, experienced a session where 5-7 J= A stations were supplying reports.=C2=A0 That was abnormal, but 3-5 days be= fore this geomagnetic event.

73!

John KB5NJD / WG2XIQ..=

On Mon,= Mar 7, 2016 at 3:58 PM, Rik Strobbe <rik.strobbe@fys.kuleuven.b= e> wrote:

The fun might still be going on tonight, have a look at this impressive = VK-JA series:

=C2=A0

=C2=A02016-03-07 19:12=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2= =A0=C2=A0 0.475785=C2=A0=C2=A0 -28=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0= =C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0=C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0= 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 19:06=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475786=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -22=C2=A0=C2=A0 0=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 19:02=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -24=C2=A0=C2=A0 0=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:52=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -25=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:48=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -26=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:40=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475773=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -27=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:30=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -25=C2=A0=C2=A0 0=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:26=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -27=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 18:16=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -29=C2=A0=C2=A0 0=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 16:58=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -23=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 16:40=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475773=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -28=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0
=C2=A02016-03-07 15:42=C2=A0=C2=A0 VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2=A0 0.475774=C2=A0=C2=A0 = -29=C2=A0=C2=A0 1=C2=A0=C2=A0 QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A0 5=C2=A0=C2=A0 JH3XCU=C2=A0= =C2=A0 PM95sm=C2=A0=C2=A0 8016=C2=A0=C2=A0 354=C2=A0

=C2=A0

73, Rik=C2=A0 ON7YD - OR7T

Van: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [owner-rsgb_lf_group@bl= acksheep.org] namens Rik Strobbe [rik.strobbe@fys.kuleuven.be]
Verzonden: maandag 7 maart 2016 22:47
Aan: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Onderwerp: RE: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night

Hello Alan,

=C2=A0

thanks for your reply.

I was just wondering if (and how) the strange propagation was correlated= to the solar events.

Although the WSPR SNR values have to be interpreted the sharp eak at=C2= =A005:02 (-8dB at DL4RAJ) is remarkable and would be pretty close to CW cop= y level.

=C2=A0

73, Rik=C2=A0 ON7YD - OR7T

=C2=A0

Van: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [owner-rsgb_lf_group@bl= acksheep.org] namens Alan Melia [alan.melia@btinternet.com]
Verzonden: maandag 7 maart 2016 15:27
Aan: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Onderwerp: Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night

Hi Rik I looked at your initial postin= g and the first thing I noticed was the Pacific DX was all=C2=A0before the = CME impact and conditions re Dst were good.
=C2=A0
I have pondered the use of WSPR for pr= opagation research and have given up on it at the moment. My opinion is tha= t there are too many unknowns to really make any worthwhile detailed predic= tions on the basis of a few spots.=C2=A0 Again I may just be being cynical=C2=A0 (but that is the nature of "t= he scientific method"=C2=A0 :-))=C2=A0 ) To explain.....I feel it just= as necessary to consider no-spots as spots.......but your other message su= ggests that there was a no-spot period because the TA station was not transmitting. I am also suspicious of a cluster like=C2=A0you poin= t out. I wonder if because of internet connectivity whether one receiver sa= ys "ah WD2xyz was received a few km away so=C2=A0that noise must be WD= 2xyz". There has also been much discussion over the last 9 months of spots not being recorded centrally despite attempted = uploads. This may be due to s/w deficiencies or network contention now ther= e are so many "listeners"=C2=A0 It would seem that more than one= =C2=A0central logging site is necessary, probably in different continents to allow for these problems.=C2=A0Also as=C2=A0Andy G= 4JNT says there is always the probability of "false positives" in= any statistical process, and multiple occurances are needed to reduce this= probability......think the so-called 5-sigma levels often quoted by CERN on their expeiments. I can't remember the exact l= evels but 3-sigma is a probability of less than about=C2=A02 chances in 100= observations of getting a "false positive". One would need much = more data to achieve even those levels with WSPR spots.
=C2=A0
On the other hand there is the possibi= lity that the early morning spots are the result of the "hot electron&= quot; aborption from the precipitated electrons killing the manmade night-t= ime noise early, and the range (3 or 4 night-time hops) just happening to add constructively. also the result of the impact = around=C2=A0 00:00z distorts the envelope of the magnetosphere. This could = quite possibly lead lead to a foussing effect or favourable=C2=A0constructi= ve fading.
=C2=A0
In conclusion .....I dont know!!=C2=A0= but these occasions are always interesting=C2=A0and fun=C2=A0 :-))
=C2=A0
Alan
G3NYK
=C2=A0
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, March 07, 2016 12:51 PM=
Subject: RE: LF: strange MF TA propag= ation last night

Hi=C2=A0Stefan, all,

=C2=A0

to=C2=A0get the=C2=A0facts right:=C2=A0there=C2=A0w= ere=C2=A0many=C2=A0other=C2=A0EU's "li= stening" at=C2=A0that time (> 30),=C2=A0but=C2= =A0any=C2=A0one (you) at=C2=A0less=C2=A0than= 500 km=C2=A0from the=C2=A0JN68 group.

So=C2=A0it's=C2=A0not=C2=A0sure=C2=A0how= =C2=A0focussed the=C2=A0propagation was.=C2=A0But is=C2=A0nevertheless=C2=A0remarkable=C2=A0that=C2= =A0serval=C2=A0other=C2=A0Eu's=C2=A0that ar= e=C2=A0known to have "good ears"=C2=A0didn&#= 39;t=C2=A0copy=C2=A0any TA last night.

=C2=A0

BTW, in=C2=A0my=C2=A0earlier list I=C2=A0did miss t= he 05:02=C2=A0UTC=C2=A0copy at DL4RAJ, the complete=C2= =A0sequence is:

=C2=A0

2016-03-07 04:40=C2=A0WH2XND 0.475740= -30 0=C2=A0DM33xt 5=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0JN68kj 9367 33
2016-03-07 04:52=C2= =A0WG2XXM 0.475711 -30 0=C2=A0EM15lj 5=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2= =A0JN68kj 8406 40
2016-03-07 05:02=C2=A0WH2XND 0.475740 -8 0=C2=A0DM33xt 5=C2= =A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0JN68kj 9367 33
2016-03-07 05:02=C2=A0WH2XND 0.475740 -16 0=C2=A0DM33xt 5=C2=A0DH5RAE=C2=A0JN68qv 9352 33
2016-03-07 05:02=C2=A0WH2XND 0.475740 -22 0=C2=A0DM33xt 5=C2= =A0DJ0ABR=C2=A0JN68nt 9346 33
2016-03-07 05:12=C2=A0WH2XND 0.475740 -3= 0 0=C2=A0DM33xt 5=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0JN68kj 9367 33

2016-03-07 05:00=C2=A0WG2XKA 0.475723= -25 0=C2=A0FN33lq 1=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0JN68kj 6292 53

=C2=A0

It=C2=A0seems=C2=A0that the=C2=A0propagation= =C2=A0peaked at +/- 05:00 UTC.

The=C2=A0fact=C2=A0that=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0copied<= /a> most of=C2=A0it is=C2=A0probably=C2=A0due to=C2=A0= his=C2=A0"good ears" (last=C2=A0night= =C2=A0DL4RAJ had 6 copies of EA5DOM,=C2=A0while=C2=A0j= ust 1=C2=A0for=C2=A0DJ0ABR and=C2=A0nil=C2=A0for DH5RAE).

=C2=A0

Maybe=C2=A0G3NYK and/or=C2=A0PA0RDT=C2=A0can= link=C2=A0strange=C2=A0propagation=C2=A0this= =C2=A0to=C2=A0some=C2=A0propagation=C2=A0mechanism /= =C2=A0solar event?

=C2=A0

73, Rik=C2=A0=C2=A0ON7YD - OR7T

=C2=A0

Van: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [owner-rsgb_lf_group@bl= acksheep.org] namens DK7FC [selberdenken@posteo.de]
Verzonden: maandag 7 maart 2016 11:40
Aan: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Onderwerp: Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night

Wow, very impressive.
As we saw in the past, JN68 is a special field...

The dst plot showed a dramatical dip. On LF we think that propagation must = be down for days but on MF i thought there can be miracles. Thus i started = the TX over the night. And see here, the miracle happened!

73, Stefan

Am 07.03.2016 09:15, schrieb Rik Strobbe:

I=C2=A0just=C2=A0noticed=C2=A0very=C2=A0strange TA=C2=A0propagation=C2= =A0on=C2=A0MF last night:

=C2=A0

During=C2=A0a=C2=A0very short=C2=A0period (04:40 - 05:02) 3 US stations= =C2=A0were=C2=A0copied in=C2=A0southern Germany,=C2=A0but=C2=A0nowhere=C2= =A0else in Europe:

=C2=A0

2016-03-07 04:40=C2=A0WH2XND=C2=A00.475740= =C2=A0-30=C2=A0=C2=A00=C2=A0DM33xt=C2=A05=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0=C2=A0JN68kj=C2= =A09367=C2=A033
2016-03-07 05:02=C2=A0WH2XND=C2=A0=C2=A00.475740=C2=A0-16=C2=A0=C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0DM33xt=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0DH5RAE=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0JN68qv=C2= =A0=C2=A09352 =C2=A033
2016-03-07 05:02=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XND=C2=A0=C2=A00.475740 =C2=A0-22 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0DM33xt=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0DJ0ABR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0JN68nt=C2= =A0=C2=A09346 =C2=A033
2016-03-07 04:52=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XXM=C2=A0=C2=A00.475711 =C2=A0-30 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0EM15lj=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0JN68kj=C2= =A0=C2=A08406 =C2=A040
2016-03-07 05:00=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XKA=C2=A0=C2=A00.475723 =C2=A0-25 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0FN33lq=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0DL4RAJ=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0JN68kj=C2= =A0=C2=A06292 =C2=A053

=C2=A0

The=C2=A0signals=C2=A0were=C2=A0partially=C2=A0very=C2=A0strong (up to -= 16dB) and the 3 EU stations are=C2=A0located close together.

Also=C2=A0the=C2=A0distances are remarkable, up to 9367 km.

Based=C2=A0on=C2=A0WSPRNET data at=C2=A0least a dozen=C2=A0other=C2=A0st= ations=C2=A0were=C2=A0receiving=C2=A0WSPR in Western=C2=A0Europe at=C2=A0th= at time,=C2=A0but=C2=A0not a single=C2=A0copy=C2=A0from them!

=C2=A0

During=C2=A0the=C2=A0same time=C2=A0period=C2=A0one=C2=A0German station = was=C2=A0copied in the US:

=C2=A0

2016-03-07 04:54=C2=A0=C2=A0DK7FC=C2=A0=C2= =A00.475682 =C2=A0-26 =C2=A00=C2=A0=C2=A0JN49ik=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WA3= TTS/2=C2=A0=C2=A0EN90xn=C2=A0=C2=A06636 =C2=A0298
2016-03-07 05:04=C2=A0=C2=A0DK7FC=C2=A0=C2=A00.475682 =C2=A0-20 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0JN49ik=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XJM=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EN91wr=C2= =A0=C2=A06557 =C2=A0299
2016-03-07 05:04=C2=A0=C2=A0DK7FC=C2=A0=C2=A00.475684 =C2=A0-17 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0JN49ik=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WE2XGR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0FN31ls=C2= =A0=C2=A06099 =C2=A0295
2016-03-07 05:14=C2=A0=C2=A0DK7FC=C2=A0=C2=A00.475680 =C2=A0-22 =C2=A01=C2= =A0=C2=A0JN49ik=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XKA=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0FN33lq=C2= =A0=C2=A05970 =C2=A0297

=C2=A0

Further=C2=A0there was=C2=A0also=C2=A0some trans Pacific DX:

=C2=A0

Hawaii-Australia:

=C2=A0

2016-03-06 10:36=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2= =A00.475798 =C2=A0-31 =C2=A00=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0VK2= XGJ=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0QF55jl=C2=A0=C2=A08278 =C2=A0222
2016-03-06 15:12=C2=A0=C2=A0VK4YB=C2=A0=C2=A00.475617 =C2=A0-24 =C2=A0-1=C2= =A0=C2=A0QG62ku=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2= =A0=C2=A07597 =C2=A050
2016-03-06 15:06=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475798 =C2=A0-26 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0VK4YB=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0QG62ku=C2=A0= =C2=A07597 =C2=A0227

=C2=A0

Australia-Japan:

=C2=A0

2016-03-06 15:08=C2=A0=C2=A0VK3ELV=C2=A0=C2= =A00.475775 =C2=A0-27 =C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0QF33bq=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0JH1= INM=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0PM95iq=C2=A0=C2=A08043 =C2=A0354

=C2=A0

Hawaii-mainland=C2=A0US:

=C2=A0

2016-03-06 07:58=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XKA=C2=A0=C2= =A00.475724 =C2=A0-28 =C2=A00=C2=A0=C2=A0FN33lq=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2= XCR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A07945 =C2=A0282
2016-03-06 08:02=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475798 =C2=A0-27 =C2=A0-1= =C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XJM=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EN91wr= =C2=A0=C2=A07413 =C2=A052
2016-03-06 07:48=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XJM=C2=A0=C2=A00.475782 =C2=A0-22 =C2=A0-1= =C2=A0=C2=A0EN91wr=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je= =C2=A0=C2=A07413 =C2=A0278
2016-03-06 07:32=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475798 =C2=A0-30 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0SWL/K9=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EN61=C2=A0= =C2=A06844 =C2=A053
2016-03-06 07:32=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475798 =C2=A0-28 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WB0VAK=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EN34ia=C2= =A0=C2=A06328 =C2=A050
2016-03-06 07:58=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XWS=C2=A0=C2=A00.475792 =C2=A0-19 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0DH89=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WA3TTS/2=C2=A0=C2=A0EN90xn=C2=A0=C2= =A06153 =C2=A021
2016-03-06 07:58=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XWS=C2=A0=C2=A00.475652 =C2=A0-23 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0DH89=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WB0VAK=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EN34ia=C2=A0= =C2=A06144 =C2=A09
2016-03-06 07:34=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XIQ=C2=A0=C2=A00.475611 =C2=A0-18 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0EM12mp=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2= =A0=C2=A06030 =C2=A0274
2016-03-06 07:32=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475799 =C2=A0-27 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XIQ=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EM12=C2=A0= =C2=A06023 =C2=A065
2016-03-06 07:34=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XXM=C2=A0=C2=A00.475712 =C2=A0-13 =C2=A0-1= =C2=A0=C2=A0EM15lj=C2=A0=C2=A05=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0BL11je= =C2=A0=C2=A06007 =C2=A0272
2016-03-06 07:32=C2=A0=C2=A0WH2XCR=C2=A0=C2=A00.475798 =C2=A0-28 =C2=A00=C2= =A0=C2=A0BL11je=C2=A0=C2=A01=C2=A0=C2=A0WG2XXM=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0EM15lj=C2= =A0=C2=A06007 =C2=A061

=C2=A0

73, Rik=C2=A0=C2=A0ON7YD - OR7T


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