Return-Path: X-Spam-DCC: paranoid 1290; Body=2 Fuz1=2 Fuz2=2 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.3 (2006-06-01) on lipkowski.org X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-0.7 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DNS_FROM_AHBL_RHSBL, RATWARE_GECKO_BUILD autolearn=no version=3.1.3 Received: from post.thorcom.com (post.thorcom.com [195.171.43.25]) by paranoid.lipkowski.org (8.13.7/8.13.7) with ESMTP id t461jRQv000439 for ; Wed, 6 May 2015 03:45:27 +0200 Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1YpoLQ-0003pM-OI for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Wed, 06 May 2015 02:41:52 +0100 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1YpoLP-0003pD-Tu for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Wed, 06 May 2015 02:41:51 +0100 Received: from mta21.charter.net ([216.33.127.81]) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtp (Exim 4.85) (envelope-from ) id 1YpoLN-0006Oo-Qz for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Wed, 06 May 2015 02:41:50 +0100 Received: from imp10 ([10.20.200.15]) by mta21.charter.net (InterMail vM.8.01.05.09 201-2260-151-124-20120717) with ESMTP id <20150506014147.CNEO23400.mta21.charter.net@imp10> for ; Tue, 5 May 2015 21:41:47 -0400 Received: from mtaout005.msg.strl.va.charter.net ([68.114.190.30]) by imp10 with smtp.charter.net id QRhn1q0040fnx6C05Rhni1; Tue, 05 May 2015 21:41:47 -0400 Received: from impout003 ([68.114.189.18]) by mtaout005.msg.strl.va.charter.net (InterMail vM.9.00.015.01 201-2473-143-101) with ESMTP id <20150506014147.MPNB1172.mtaout005.msg.strl.va.charter.net@impout003> for ; Tue, 5 May 2015 20:41:47 -0500 Received: from [192.168.1.100] ([68.118.229.27]) by impout003 with charter.net id QRhn1q0010c6mLs01Rhnzc; Tue, 05 May 2015 20:41:47 -0500 X-Authority-Analysis: v=2.1 cv=QJPmR27L c=1 sm=1 tr=0 a=WLV0DKOOKFWiVcf2giHCRw==:117 a=WLV0DKOOKFWiVcf2giHCRw==:17 a=hOpmn2quAAAA:8 a=naziTCeN6agA:10 a=N659UExz7-8A:10 a=hTMqG6psAAAA:8 a=tSamnS97wvnRzENRvlcA:9 a=pILNOxqGKmIA:10 X-Auth-id: dzF0YWdAY2hhcnRlci5uZXQ= Message-ID: <5549715C.2040407@charter.net> Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 21:41:48 -0400 From: John Andrews User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows NT 6.1; WOW64; rv:31.0) Gecko/20100101 Thunderbird/31.6.0 MIME-Version: 1.0 To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org References: In-Reply-To: X-Scan-Signature: 2e2f7cbbe9f38dd7bf3fac4fc012e6fc Subject: Re: LF: Solar activity Content-Type: text/plain; charset=windows-1252; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.56 on 10.1.3.10 Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 3054 Alan, Looks like the X class flare was from region 2239, near the eastern limb, so a CME might be a miss. John, W1TAG On 5/5/2015 7:26 PM, Alan Melia wrote: > The filament event has thrown off a CME which is sheduled to impact the > magnetosphere around 1800z on the 6th. The NOAA animation is quite > dramatic and it looks like we will get it dead centre. the radio effect > of this is somewhat dependent on the direction of the field when it > arrives, but expect aurora and reduced LF signal levels from 6/7th for > some following nights. > > The region numbered 2335 I think which is fairly central has thrown off > an X2.7 flare just after 2300z. Expect another possible CME arriving any > time after 2400z on the 7/8th. If both of these reconnect we could > experience long period of poor LF propagation. > > http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction for > the NOAA animation. > > Alan > G3NYK >