Return-Path: X-Spam-DCC: paranoid 1102; Body=2 Fuz1=2 Fuz2=2 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.3 (2006-06-01) on lipkowski.org X-Spam-Level: X-Spam-Status: No, score=-1.9 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DNS_FROM_AHBL_RHSBL, HTML_50_60,HTML_MESSAGE,RCVD_ILLEGAL_IP autolearn=no version=3.1.3 Received: from post.thorcom.com (post.thorcom.com [195.171.43.25]) by paranoid.lipkowski.org (8.13.7/8.13.7) with ESMTP id t0HEMdtC012465 for ; Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:22:39 +0100 Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1YCU8k-0007ai-35 for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Sat, 17 Jan 2015 14:14:14 +0000 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1YCU8j-0007aZ-IV for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Sat, 17 Jan 2015 14:14:13 +0000 Received: from smtpout1.wanadoo.co.uk ([80.12.242.29] helo=smtpout.wanadoo.co.uk) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtp (Exim 4.85) (envelope-from ) id 1YCU8g-00030R-TT for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Sat, 17 Jan 2015 14:14:12 +0000 Received: from AGB ([2.31.59.208]) by mwinf5d07 with ME id h2E61p00G4VZmXW032E6tv; Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:14:09 +0100 X-ME-Helo: AGB X-ME-Date: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 15:14:09 +0100 X-ME-IP: 2.31.59.208 Message-ID: From: "Graham" To: References: <54B6D3D8.7070000@kpnmail.nl> <7A64238C4EA44F11B7BB8CDA9687EC2A@AGB> <002e01d0304e$1368c500$6401a8c0@JAYDELL> <37A72AE6A9D14925B0C07A82A36F21DB@AGB> <002601d031f3$05739820$6401a8c0@JAYDELL> In-Reply-To: <002601d031f3$05739820$6401a8c0@JAYDELL> Date: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 14:14:06 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal Importance: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Windows Live Mail 14.0.8117.416 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V14.0.8117.416 X-Scan-Signature: 2aa3de645824127bbddd76ac4907369e Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0044_01D0325F.DA795110" X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.56 on 10.1.3.10 Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 2014 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01D0325F.DA795110 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Jay, The whole world of data is based on probability , under the 'hud = a whole sequence of decisions have been made , before the data is = released , in this case , Opera uses data from other sources to = double check , either multiple spots or the time stamp as the = final check=20 With a one off single detection , its down to the time window , = vk5zuc posted this in the 600m group , which points to 5% error , = that could even be a little shy of the real number.=20 looking over the last 24H , no false spots on 2200 and 2 = dynamic showing on 600 and 2 Opera from a pool of app 22 = stations , Both systems run in parallel making 2 per system =20 To achieve the same % error rate from a correlation system , = compared to a data decode , with a gain of 5/6 dB is quite a = achievement , sure , more gain can be added , but so is the % error = rate increased=20 Which brings me back to my first posts , ' the up grade is fit = for purpose ' 73-Graham G0NBD =20 Ron, Graham and others. Is there a way of estimating the probability that a detection is real or = false. Perhaps Bayes' theorem can help define true positives. I propose the scientific probability of 95%. So there is only a 5% = chance that it is false. Do we need more certainty than that? Andrew VK5ZUC From: jrusgrove@comcast.net=20 Sent: Saturday, January 17, 2015 1:15 AM To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. Graham Perhaps deep search is not appropriate for 'standard HAM kit' then.=20 With DF6NM's OPDS we have the correlation % and dB 'certainty' = indicator, an accurate time indicator of the transmission and a highly = accurate frequency readout to base our judgement on. With Jose's software we have no such information to make a judgement. As = you say 'everything is inside' so we are expected to take the software's = decision as gospel! The fact that someone somewhere happens to also = receive a spot (within a 2 - 5 minute window) is woefully insufficient = for validation.=20 Ask Jose to make the code available for inspection so we can assess the = decision process. =20 Jay W1VD WD2XNS WE2XGR/2 =20 ----- Original Message ----- =20 From: Graham=20 To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 Sent: Friday, January 16, 2015 5:18 PM Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. Jay, The house style is everything is on the inside , Ros/Opera are = designed to achieve the best performance from standard HAM = kit , in the case of the dynamic option , high stability will = reduce the processing times , but the final s/n is roughly the = same,=20 processing algorithms are used to minimise the level of false = detections against s/n , the spots that are wrongly validated and = presented, can be tested against other users , as shown below , = or against the data in the pak-map data base =20 two detections , same call same time stamp is taken as = validation , =20 G, Hear G8LCO and others decode in OP8 , 21:53 Gw0EZY + Myself = 21:54 , ie + 1 min=20 21:53 477 LA3EQ de G0NBD Op8 Deep Search 488 mi -35 dB in Liverpool = with 0.01w + Marconi-T 21:53 477 LA3EQ de GW0EZY Op8 Deep Search 541 mi -35 dB in Welshpool = IO82ho with 0.01w + Marconi-T 21:52 477 LA3EQ de G8LCO Op8 513 mi -26 dB F:12% in Welwyn Herts with = 0.01w + Marconi-T Same in this sequence , but G8HUH is false , No other decode = , system stamps with '??' 21:28 477 SV8CS de SV8RV-2 Op8 6 mi +3 dB F:3% in Zakynthos (Zante) = isl.GREECE with 0.1w + "T" Marconi 21:28 477 SV8CS de SP5XSB Op8 995 mi -7 dB F:14%_Ini in Raszyn nr = Warsaw with 0.1w + "T" Marconi 21:25 477 G8HUH de LA3EQ Op8 Deep Search ?? -37 dB in Egersund, Norway 21:24 477 LA3EQ de SP5XSB Op8 Deep Search 728 mi -37 dB in Raszyn nr = Warsaw with 0.01w + Marconi-T -------------------------------------------------- From: Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 11:01 PM To: Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. >> More than one detection/decode is then used to certify the = spot. >=20 > Certify the spot? The fact that someone else somewhere received a = spot means that your spot=20 > certified good? Really? No further corroboration necessary? >=20 > With DF6NM's OPDS system there's the correlation % and dB = 'certainty' indicator, an accurate time=20 > indicator of the transmission and a highly accurate frequency = readout that are all used for=20 > corroboration. >=20 > Jay W1VD WD2XNS WE2XGR/2 >=20 >=20 >=20 >=20 >=20 > ----- Original Message -----=20 > From: "Graham" > To: > Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 4:17 PM > Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. >=20 >=20 >> Jan, >> >> As posted , any decode in dynamic , will only show calls from = the list , this is the bill=20 >> for the extra 5/6 dB gain .. >> your spots are pre-fixed with ''??'' this is added by = the web-linked system and=20 >> denotes a unique detection , false Opera decodes have a call = sign format , with random=20 >> characters. >> >> Deep Search ?? >> >> More than one detection/decode is then used to certify the = spot >> >> To check the validity , you can use the psk-data base , = which holds the web-tx beacon=20 >> and rx-spot time stamped , Opera 8 Dynamic resolves in 0>2 = mins , Op32Dy 2 >5 Mins after=20 >> tx /end/decode >> >> Otherwise , the system provides the quality check ... >> >> false .... >> 19:31 477 SV8CS de NL9222 Op8 Deep Search ?? 1260 mi -35 dB in = Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi=20 >> "T" >> >> Ok ...inside the 2<>5 Min processing time for op32 dy , G3XDV = validating the tx /rx time >> >> 20:21 136 G8HUH de EA5DOM-RX Op32 Deep Search 889 mi -41 dB in = Albir RX Site >> 20:17 136 G8HUH de G3XDV Op32 124 mi -13 dB F:0% in Welwyn = IO91VT >> >> 73-G, >> -------------------------------------------------- >> From: "pa3abk" >> Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 8:38 PM >> To: "blacksheep" >> Subject: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection. >> >>> This eve I monitored MF Opera, however my WSPR timer was = operational the same time giving a 2 min=20 >>> carrier at h10, h30 & h50. >>> Sorry for the unwanted QRM, however to my surprise NL9222 detected = following: >>> 18:51 477 SV8CS de NL9222 Op8 Deep Search ?? 2027 km -35 dB in = Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi=20 >>> "T" >>> 19:11 477 LA3EQ de NL9222 Op8 Deep Search ?? 693 km -37 dB in = Mijdrecht with 0.01w + Marconi-T >>> 19:31 477 SV8CS de NL9222 Op8 Deep Search ?? 2027 km -35 dB in = Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi=20 >>> "T" >>> >>> NL9222 is 42km from me and receives my sigs at +1dB >>> >>> No other stations detected these stations. I assume they were not = QRV either. >>> Maybe on LF? >>> >>> I have the feeling that Opera DS is acting more human than = desired. >>> It's the same when a CW human taker is decoding a plain language = text in heavy QRM at QSA 0. >>> You assume that certain patterns is forming a plain word which = match the look_up table you have=20 >>> stored in your brain. >>> >>> Jan/pa3abk >>> >>> --=20 >>> pa3abk <-> dordrecht jo21it >>> Sent by Philips STB-75 with T100 >>> >>> >>=20 >=20 > ------=_NextPart_000_0044_01D0325F.DA795110 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Jay,
 
The whole world  of data   is based  on =20 probability   , under the  'hud  a  whole=20 sequence  of  decisions  have been made , before = the =20 data  is released ,  in this  case , Opera uses  = data =20 from  other sources  to  double  check , = either =20 multiple  spots  or the  time  stamp as the = final =20 check
 
With a  one off  single  detection  ,  its = down=20 to  the  time  window ,  vk5zuc  posted = this =20 in the  600m  group , which points to   5% error ,=20 that  could even be  a little  shy  of the  = real =20 number.
 
looking  over the  last  24H ,  no  = false =20 spots on 2200  and   2    dynamic =20 showing  on  600  and  2   Opera  = from=20 a  pool of  app  22  stations  , Both =20 systems  run  in parallel  making  2 per = system  =20
 
To achieve  the  same  % error  rate  from = a =20 correlation  system  ,  compared  to a  = data =20 decode , with a  gain of  5/6 dB  is  quite a =20 achievement , sure  , more gain can be added  , but  = so  is=20 the  % error  rate increased
 
Which brings  me back to  my  first  posts = , '=20 the  up grade  is  fit  for  purpose '
 
73-Graham
G0NBD
 
 
Ron, Graham and others.
Is there a way of estimating the = probability=20 that a detection is real or false. Perhaps Bayes' theorem can help = define true=20 positives. I propose the scientific = probability of 95%.=20 So there is only a 5% chance that it is false. Do we need more certainty than = that? Andrew VK5ZUC
 

From: jrusgrove@comcast.net
Sent: Saturday, January 17, 2015 1:15 AM
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org= =20
Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives ghost=20 detection.

Graham
 
Perhaps deep search is not appropriate = for=20 'standard HAM kit' then.
 
With DF6NM's OPDS we have the correlation % and dB 'certainty' = indicator, an=20 accurate time indicator of the transmission and a highly accurate = frequency=20 readout to base our judgement on.
 
With Jose's=20 software we have no such information to make a judgement. As you = say=20 'everything is inside' so we are expected to take the software's = decision as=20 gospel! The fact that someone somewhere happens to also receive a = spot=20 (within a 2 - 5 minute window) is woefully insufficient for=20 validation. 
 
Ask Jose to=20 make the code available for inspection so we can assess the = decision=20 process.  
 
Jay W1VD =20 WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
 
 
  
 
 ----- Original Message ----- 
From:=20 Graham
Sent: Friday, January 16, 2015 = 5:18=20 PM
Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a = 2 mins=20 carrier gives ghost detection.

Jay,
 
The house style is everything is on the  inside , =20 Ros/Opera  are  designed  to  achieve  = the =20 best  performance  from   standard  = HAM  =20 kit ,    in the  case  of the  = dynamic =20 option ,  high  stability will  reduce the  = processing=20 times ,  but the  final  s/n  is roughly  the = same,=20
 
processing  algorithms are used  to  minimise = the =20 level  of  false detections against s/n ,  = the  spots=20 that  are  wrongly  validated  and presented, can = be =20 tested  against  other  users  , as  shown = below=20 ,  or   against the  data  in the  = pak-map =20 data  base   
 
 two detections ,  same  call  same = time =20 stamp  is taken as validation , 
 
G,
 
 
 
Hear  G8LCO and  others  decode  = in =20 OP8 ,  21:53 Gw0EZY + Myself  21:54  ,   = ie  + 1=20 min

21:53 477 LA3EQ de G0NBD Op8 Deep Search 488 mi -35 dB in Liverpool = with=20 0.01w + Marconi-T

21:53 477 LA3EQ de GW0EZY Op8 Deep Search 541 mi -35 dB in = Welshpool IO82ho=20 with 0.01w + Marconi-T

21:52 477 LA3EQ de G8LCO Op8 513 mi -26 dB F:12% in Welwyn Herts = with 0.01w=20 + Marconi-T

Same  in this  sequence , but  = G8HUH =20 is   false ,  No  other  decode  , = system =20 stamps  with  '??'

21:28 477 SV8CS de SV8RV-2 Op8 6 mi +3 dB F:3% in Zakynthos = (Zante)=20 isl.GREECE with 0.1w + "T" Marconi

21:28 477 SV8CS de SP5XSB Op8 995 mi -7 dB F:14%_Ini in = Raszyn nr=20 Warsaw with 0.1w + "T" Marconi

21:25 477 G8HUH de LA3EQ Op8 Deep Search ?? -37 dB in = Egersund,=20 Norway

21:24 477 LA3EQ de SP5XSB Op8 Deep Search 728 mi -37 dB in = Raszyn=20 nr Warsaw with 0.01w + Marconi-T

 

 
=


--------------------------------------------------
From: = <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 = 11:01=20 PM
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Subject: Re: LF: = Opera -Just=20 a 2 mins carrier gives ghost detection.

>> More = than =20 one  detection/decode  is  then  used  = to =20 certify the  spot.
>
> Certify the spot? The fact = that=20 someone else somewhere received a spot means that your spot
> = certified=20 good? Really? No further corroboration necessary?
>
> = With=20 DF6NM's OPDS system there's the correlation % and dB 'certainty' = indicator, an=20 accurate time
> indicator of the transmission and a highly = accurate=20 frequency readout that are all used for
> = corroboration.
>=20
> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
>
> =
>=20
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: = "Graham" <g8fzk@g8fzk.fsnet.co.uk>
> To:=20 <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
> Sent: Wednesday, January = 14, 2015=20 4:17 PM
> Subject: Re: LF: Opera -Just a 2 mins carrier gives = ghost=20 detection.
>
>
>> Jan,
>>
>> = As=20 posted , any decode  in dynamic , will  only  = show =20 calls  from the  list , this  is the  bill =
>>=20 for  the  extra  5/6 dB  gain ..
>> your=20 spots  are  pre-fixed   with  = ''??''  =20 this  is  added  by  the web-linked  system = and=20
>> denotes  a  unique  detection , false = Opera =20 decodes have  a  call  sign  format  , = with =20 random
>> characters.
>>
>> Deep Search=20 ??
>>
>> More than  one  = detection/decode =20 is  then  used  to  certify the =20 spot
>>
>> To  check  the  validity = , =20 you  can  use  the  psk-data  base , which=20 holds  the  web-tx beacon
>> and  rx-spot = time =20 stamped ,  Opera 8 Dynamic resolves  in 0>2  = mins  ,=20 Op32Dy  2 >5 Mins  after
>> tx=20 /end/decode
>>
>> Otherwise , the  system  = provides  the  quality  check = ...
>>
>> false=20 ....
>> 19:31    477 SV8CS de NL9222 Op8 Deep = Search=20 ?? 1260 mi -35 dB in Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi
>>=20 "T"
>>
>> Ok ...inside  the 2<>5 = Min =20 processing  time  for  op32 dy , G3XDV validating  = the  tx  /rx  time
>>
>>=20 20:21    136 G8HUH de EA5DOM-RX Op32 Deep Search 889 mi = -41 dB=20 in Albir RX Site
>> 20:17    136 G8HUH de = G3XDV Op32=20 124 mi -13 dB F:0% in Welwyn IO91VT
>>
>> = 73-G,
>>=20 --------------------------------------------------
>> From: = "pa3abk"=20 <pa3abk@kpnmail.nl>
>> Sent: Wednesday, January 14, = 2015 8:38=20 PM
>> To: "blacksheep"=20 <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
>> Subject: LF: Opera = -Just a 2=20 mins carrier gives ghost detection.
>>
>>> This = eve I=20 monitored MF Opera, however my WSPR timer was operational the same = time giving=20 a 2 min
>>> carrier at h10, h30 & = h50.
>>> Sorry=20 for the unwanted QRM, however to my surprise NL9222 detected=20 following:
>>> 18:51    477 SV8CS de NL9222 = Op8=20 Deep Search ?? 2027 km -35 dB in Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi=20
>>> "T"
>>> 19:11    477 LA3EQ = de=20 NL9222 Op8 Deep Search ?? 693 km -37 dB in Mijdrecht with 0.01w +=20 Marconi-T
>>> 19:31    477 SV8CS de NL9222 = Op8 Deep=20 Search ?? 2027 km -35 dB in Mijdrecht with 0.1w + Marconi =
>>>=20 "T"
>>>
>>> NL9222 is 42km from me and = receives my=20 sigs at +1dB
>>>
>>> No other stations = detected these=20 stations. I assume they were not QRV either.
>>> Maybe on=20 LF?
>>>
>>> I have the feeling that Opera DS = is acting=20 more human than desired.
>>> It's the same when a CW human = taker=20 is decoding a plain language text in heavy QRM at QSA = 0.
>>> You=20 assume that certain patterns is forming a plain word which match the = look_up=20 table you have
>>> stored in your=20 brain.
>>>
>>>=20 Jan/pa3abk
>>>
>>> --
>>> pa3abk=20 <-> dordrecht jo21it
>>> Sent by Philips STB-75 with = T100
>>>
>>>
>>
>=20
>
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