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From: "Graham" <g8fzk@g8fzk.fsnet.co.uk>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
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Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 14:19:19 -0000
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Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
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Alan,

WE6XGR  500 khz  Opera   decoded  on the  west  coast  , no  decodes 
showing  on the  psk-map  into   EU last  night .

G.



N1GKE	600m	OPERA	289 miles	05:02:51
K3SIW	600m	OPERA	580 miles	04:58:45
AC4IU	600m	OPERA	306 miles	04:58:44
K4RKM	600m	OPERA	585 miles	04:58:44
WE6XGR	600m	OPERA	0 miles	04:58:42
NO3M	600m	OPERA	171 miles	04:50:31
K1CF	600m	OPERA	280 miles	04:34:06
N6RY	600m	OPERA	2267 miles	04:13:33
W1VD	600m	OPERA	214 miles	03:20:09
WB2LMV	600m	OPERA	150 miles	02:39:04
W3NF	600m	OPERA	233 miles	00:07:03

Monitor: N6RY Loc DM13ID
Frequency: 0.500 MHz (600m)
Show all seen by N6RY
Last report: WE6XGR
at Fri, 09 Mar 2012 04:13:33 GMT


--------------------------------------------------
From: "ALAN MELIA" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 12:59 PM
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow

> Hi Jay thanks for the confirmation.....:-))
> Also the VLF effects, I have never been quite sure of the effects down 
> there.....but they should be similar. I wonder whether the beacons will 
> throw up any data about the 500kHz effects over long distances??
>
> Alan
>
>
> --- On Fri, 9/3/12, jrusgrove@comcast.net <jrusgrove@comcast.net> wrote:
>
>> From: jrusgrove@comcast.net <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
>> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
>> To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
>> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 12:42
>> Alan
>>
>> Thanks for the update and insight.
>>
>> Absolutely no trace of Stefan's signal in CT last night. A
>> few nights back he was 25+ dB s/n (in 28 mHz). Long distance
>> VLF signal levels below normal as well.
>>
>> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "ALAN MELIA" 
>> <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
>> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
>> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 5:57 AM
>> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms
>> to follow
>>
>>
>> Hi all more geomag storming this morning. It looks as though
>> I might have got my timing wrong. However the 56 hours to
>> the Kp=7 event is a bit slow for such a big event, and the
>> predicted speed of that CME.
>>
>> I suspect this mornings event may be what I refered to
>> yesterday as a "sub-storm". This occurs when the plasma
>> cloud sweeps past Earth and some is then trapped in a
>> "magnetic bottle" in the tail of the magnetosphere. The
>> magnetic field becomes highly distorted and twisted by the
>> extra hot charge. Just as in the Sun-spots this strain is
>> relieved as the field snaps back into a lower energy state.
>> The excess energy which is released as the field collapses
>> is transfered to the plasma "glob". The result is that two
>> parts of the plasma are fired off at very high speed. one
>> towads Earth and one away from Earth (to conserve
>> momentum....a basic law of physics). This mornings event was
>> the shock of that plasma "bullet" arriving. I believe this
>> mornings event may have been of this nature.
>>
>> How does it affect LF? The charge from the "bullet" is
>> injected into the ring current so tops up the charge
>> reservoir, and this lengthens the period of excess
>> attenuation in the night-time D-layer. There is some
>> discrepancy between the Dst estimates. The Colorado estimate
>> is running at about -50nT whilst the Kyoto value is around
>> -150nT. Kyoto is based on a number of ground located
>> magnetometer observations and is prone to rather wild
>> fluctuations, and often "overshoots". The Colorado plot is
>> based on a calculation using the solar wind parameters as
>> observed by the ACE satellite. From my experience I find the
>> latter to be more useful/meaningful in terms of LF effects.
>>
>> Overall I think this indicates a mild effect. Long distance
>> night-time paths will be affected for a week or so. For a
>> good indication of the progress of of the recovery, watch
>> the Dst as it returns to around -20nT....the indication of
>> quiet, good propagation conditions. Just before the
>> conditions settle there can be some exceptionally good
>> nights, probably caused by favourable fading/multipath.
>> These are very location dependent and do not work for
>> everyone.
>>
>> However keep watching..... NOAA predict the possibility of
>> more X-Class flares from the current spots, with the
>> associated CMEs.
>>
>> Good LF DXing !!
>>
>> Alan
>> G3NYK
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>