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From: "Alan Melia" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
References: <4577C3AE.4040608@online.fr>
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2006 10:38:21 -0000
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Subject: LF: Re: T/A  last night :  XKO , XES
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Status: O

Hi Jean-Pierre. You dont see any effect of a flare on the night-time
signals. The radiation (Hard UV and X-rays) will produce an almost immediate
effect on daytime signals. See Dex's posting.

If then there is a CME associated with the sun-surface activity this will
take some 56 hours to reach Earth. So there will be a two day delay before
the rising Kp index indicates the shock-front arrival. The recent increases
in Kp to 5 on the 5th and 6th are due to a recurring coronal hole high speed
flow, not the recent flares. This will depress overnight conditions from
tonight. The effect should not be too bad as the Dst index indicates only a
modest drop (to about -50nT )

If there was a CME ejected with the X9 flare that will arrive probably
tonight or early this evening (it might be a good night for aurora watching
!) However the position of the spot producing that flare was close to the
limb of the Solar disc so the main force of the CME would not be directed
Earthwards. I expect we may see another minor storm with Kp rising again to
5 or maybe 6 but not much further. The continued geomagnetic activity is
filling the Equatorial Ring current with electrons so the effects may take
some days, maybe a week or so to decay away this time.

Cheers de Alan G3NYK


----- Original Message -----
From: Jean-Pierre M�r� <jpm.f1afj@online.fr>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Sent: 07 December 2006 07:33
Subject: LF: T/A last night : XKO , XES


>
> Hi all on the list !
>
> Thank you Joe W4DEX and John W1TAG to have brought
> into service their beacons. How it was foreseeable,
> the large solar activity well "very broke"
> transatlantic propag!
>
> i copy on the grabber :
> WD2XES , WD2XKO ( only a few traces )
>
> Low static level
> Low noise level
>
> Captures of the night are on :
> http://jpmere.online.fr/Grabber/Grabber.htm
> please "click" on "Capture-1" to
> "Capture-5" go back in time
>
> the files of night are filed each day at :
> http://jpmere.online.fr/LF/
>
> 73 qro Jean-Pierre  f1afj   JN06ht
>
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