Message-ID: <000801c310f8$bac96340$6507a8c0@Main>
From: "Alan Melia" <Alan.Melia@btinternet.com>
To: "LF-Group" <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Date: Fri, 2 May 2003 23:18:07 +0100
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Subject: LF: Long term propagation forecast !!
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Hi all, yes I suppose to do that would be really sticking my neck out. What
I have done is to analyse the geomagnetic activity over the last 10 years
and plot out the number of sequenctial "quite" days where the Kp Index was
less than 5. The period early in January suggested that this might lead to
good conditions for paths of over 3000kms. The plots show that there are
more long quiet spells as we drop down the solar cycle to the minimum, but
there is still that amount of activity to give the conditions a kick in our
favour. As the financial watchdogs say "past performance is no guarantee of
future results", but it is a lot better than nothing. At the present I feel
like an early weather forecasters when if you said "the weather tomorrow
will be the same as today", you would be right about 52 % of the
time....which is quite good going, but slightly dumb forecasting!!

If you want to look at my ideas and plots they are now on my web site, go
direct to the forecast page with
http://www.alan.melia.btinternet.co.uk/forecast.htm
Any thoughts, data, conflicting references etc, gratefully received. I hope
it provides an incentive to keep working towards longer paths, and helps
maybe understand how to pick the times to try for them.

Cheers de Alan G3NYK
alan.melia@btinternet.com