Return-Path: Received: (qmail 21565 invoked from network); 6 May 2003 17:05:55 -0000 Received: from netmail01.services.quay.plus.net (212.159.14.219) by mailstore with SMTP; 6 May 2003 17:05:55 -0000 Received: (qmail 20613 invoked by uid 10001); 6 May 2003 17:05:54 -0000 Received: from post.thorcom.com (193.82.116.70) by netmail01.services.quay.plus.net with SMTP; 6 May 2003 17:05:54 -0000 X-SQ: A Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 19D5p6-0002HR-8s for rsgb_lf_group-outgoing@blacksheep.org; Tue, 06 May 2003 18:01:48 +0100 Received: from [194.247.47.231] (helo=mailout.zetnet.co.uk) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 19D5p0-0002HI-MJ for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Tue, 06 May 2003 18:01:42 +0100 Received: from irwell.zetnet.co.uk ([194.247.47.48] helo=zetnet.co.uk) by mailout.zetnet.co.uk with esmtp (Exim 3.36 #1 (Debian)) id 19D5p0-0004tm-00 for ; Tue, 06 May 2003 18:01:42 +0100 Received: from a7j7r2 (bts-0413.dialup.zetnet.co.uk [194.247.49.157]) by zetnet.co.uk (8.12.3/8.12.3/Debian-5.zet) with SMTP id h46H1b8g002892 for ; Tue, 6 May 2003 18:01:40 +0100 Message-ID: <000301c313f1$176be960$9d31f7c2@a7j7r2> From: "John Rabson" To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org References: <000801c310f8$bac96340$6507a8c0@Main> Date: Tue, 6 May 2003 17:05:25 +0100 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2600.0000 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Subject: LF: Re: Long term propagation forecast !! Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-12.9 required=5.0tests=ORIGINAL_MESSAGE,QUOTED_EMAIL_TEXT,REFERENCESversion=2.53 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 2.53 (1.174.2.15-2003-03-30-exp) X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rsgb_lf_group-outgoing@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false Keep up the good work, Alan.. 73 G3 PAI ----- Original Message ----- From: "Alan Melia" To: "LF-Group" Sent: Friday, May 02, 2003 11:18 PM Subject: LF: Long term propagation forecast !! > Hi all, yes I suppose to do that would be really sticking my neck out. What > I have done is to analyse the geomagnetic activity over the last 10 years > and plot out the number of sequenctial "quite" days where the Kp Index was > less than 5. The period early in January suggested that this might lead to > good conditions for paths of over 3000kms. The plots show that there are > more long quiet spells as we drop down the solar cycle to the minimum, but > there is still that amount of activity to give the conditions a kick in our > favour. As the financial watchdogs say "past performance is no guarantee of > future results", but it is a lot better than nothing. At the present I feel > like an early weather forecasters when if you said "the weather tomorrow > will be the same as today", you would be right about 52 % of the > time....which is quite good going, but slightly dumb forecasting!! > > If you want to look at my ideas and plots they are now on my web site, go > direct to the forecast page with > http://www.alan.melia.btinternet.co.uk/forecast.htm > Any thoughts, data, conflicting references etc, gratefully received. I hope > it provides an incentive to keep working towards longer paths, and helps > maybe understand how to pick the times to try for them. > > Cheers de Alan G3NYK > alan.melia@btinternet.com > > >