Message-ID: <E7E44CB2DA494AB5B4571BA22936DC31@gnat>
From: "Alan Melia" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
References: <51241A3B.5020105@iup.uni-heidelberg.de> <51241C8C.4030001@iup.uni-heidelberg.de> <001301ce0f67$423300d0$6401a8c0@JAYDELL> <6CCB8568E37648CFB765B787E462B4DA@gnat> <003801ce0f7b$1c63f530$6401a8c0@JAYDELL> <E69CF1B8FEF54D0F91A4F9E14E9569A9@gnat> <512547BF.8070900@iup.uni-heidelberg.de>
Date: Wed, 20 Feb 2013 23:10:30 -0000
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Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
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Hi Stefan it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions from sporadic 
"catches" but shall we say that there is nothing that seems to disprove it. 
:-))
I am processing data on the path from CFH Halifax in 2003, before I "saw the 
light". This shows a distinct "edge".......so that when the Dst is low (say 
<-60nT ) there are no periods of good strength reception. The higher the Dst 
the more likely there will be a good night and the lonnger the good period 
will be. However picking a night with a higher level of Dst does not ensure 
good reception but does make it more probable. I am now looking at details 
of selected nights to see if I can determine a relationship to the better 
conditions.

I feel a bit like a weather forecaster predicting "sunny periods with 
showers, some gusty winds, a little snow in places, accompanied by the odd 
thunderstorm"  :-))  i.e. "I don't know, but there will be "weather"......."
Alan
G3NYK

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Stefan Schäfer" <Stefan.Schaefer@iup.uni-heidelberg.de>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 10:01 PM
Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west


> Jay, Alan, Mark, LF,
>
> Thanks for the discussion and for watching. KU7Z, that sounds like a 
> challenge! Not sure if i can make that path in this time of the year. But 
> we never know...
>
> Alan, did you get more informations which confirm or deny your theory 
> since the Venezuela grabber is available?
>
> 73, Stefan
>
>
> Am 20.02.2013 16:44, schrieb Alan Melia:
>> Thanks for that Jay I will factor that into my musings   :-))
>> I think that is within the range I have been considering.....so that is 
>> very useful data.
>> You put the finger on the difficulty of knowing how much the local noise 
>> level has shifted, but this is where your long experience is an 
>> advantage.
>>
>> I have a vast amount of data the problem is thinking of a way of 
>> displaying it that will stimulate some new ideas.....plenty to fill my 
>> waking hours :-))
>>
>> Alan
>> G3NYK
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
>> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
>> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 3:01 PM
>> Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
>>
>>
>>> Alan
>>>
>>> Thanks for your comments.
>>>
>>> Based on Spectrum Lab's s/n measurement, along with that of WSPR, I 
>>> would say that we are in a period where signals are down roughly 6 - 10 
>>> dB on the EU > NA T/A path as compared to a month ago. There have been a 
>>> few nights where the noise floor was elevated due to thunderstorms in 
>>> the US but I am not including them in my observation.
>>>
>>> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
>>>
>>> p.s. I rarely use Argo any more since it is virtually impossible to 
>>> determine s/n of the received signals.
>>>
>>>
>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Alan Melia" 
>>> <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
>>> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
>>> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 9:32 AM
>>> Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
>>>
>>>
>>>> Hi Jay I am still pondering this, plotting Dst against "period receive 
>>>> signal exceeds xdB" gives a interesting but not very illumination 
>>>> picture. It provides a cut off when theDstis depressed, but it shows a 
>>>> wide range of received signals when the Dst is high (towards zero nT). 
>>>> I am still looking for another factor.
>>>>
>>>> By "quiet period" I mean Kp <2 for 10 days or more.... really quiet 
>>>> geomagnetically and signal levels seem to be unexpectedly poor. Then 
>>>> signals seem to improve after a low level event say Kp=4 . That led to 
>>>> my idea of ionospheric "leak".
>>>>
>>>> However taking a quick look at the recent conditions, things look 
>>>> active enough to be "normal". It is very confusing but I am looking to 
>>>> see if it could be explained by just an unfavourable path 
>>>> length/fading. Unfortunately one needs several stations in different 
>>>> location to either tranmit, or several receiving stations to receive 
>>>> the same signal to see the effect of this. If some paths are 
>>>> unfavouable other should be favoured.
>>>>
>>>> One problem also is I do not know what a "subjectively" worse signal 
>>>> means, does it mean 10dB ?? Most likely not waterfal displays are very 
>>>> non-linear so it might only be a dB or two. That could easily be 
>>>> expained by a fading pattern involving say three different hop modes.
>>>>
>>>> There was a grab recently that shoed Stefan and Markus. Markus was 
>>>> fading to a "ragged" trace at times whereas Stefan was solid all the 
>>>> time, though they were probably seeing similar fading conditions.
>>>>
>>>> I am still not convinced that there is not some other effect but I cant 
>>>> find anything:-))  Bit like "Dark Propagation" :-))
>>>>
>>>> Best Wishes
>>>> Alan
>>>> G3NYK
>>>>
>>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>
>>>> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
>>>> Cc: <jrusgrove@comcast.net>; <lowfer@mailman.qth.net>
>>>> Sent: Wednesday, February 20, 2013 12:38 PM
>>>> Subject: Re: LF: Beacon to the west
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Stefan
>>>>>
>>>>> Good copy last night ... although some dB short of the 'best' 
>>>>> conditions. Seem to recall Alan mentioning that prolonged 'quiet' 
>>>>> periods can be less favorable than those that feature some 'ups and 
>>>>> downs'. Maybe Alan will chime in.
>>>>>
>>>>> Representative capture below. Copy past 0800Z at 
>>>>> http://www.w1vd.com/interestinggrab.html  ... if you squint hard 
>>>>> enough.
>>>>>
>>>>> Jay W1VD  WD2XNS  WE2XGR/2
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>