Return-Path: X-Spam-DCC: paranoid 1169; Body=2 Fuz1=2 Fuz2=2 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.3 (2006-06-01) on lipkowski.org X-Spam-Level: *** X-Spam-Status: No, score=3.5 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DNS_FROM_AHBL_RHSBL, FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK,HTML_40_50,HTML_MESSAGE,WEIRD_QUOTING autolearn=no version=3.1.3 Received: from post.thorcom.com (post.thorcom.com [195.171.43.25]) by paranoid.lipkowski.org (8.13.7/8.13.7) with ESMTP id t0PNfHWM017028 for ; Mon, 26 Jan 2015 00:41:18 +0100 Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1YFWgD-0006J7-R0 for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:33:21 +0000 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1YFWgD-0006Iy-Dd for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:33:21 +0000 Received: from rgout03.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk ([65.20.0.180]) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtp (Exim 4.85) (envelope-from ) id 1YFWgB-0002aY-A2 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:33:20 +0000 X-OWM-Source-IP: 81.156.245.240(GB) X-OWM-Env-Sender: alan.melia@btinternet.com X-CTCH-RefID: str=0001.0A090201.54C57D3E.0067,ss=1,re=0.000,recu=0.000,reip=0.000,cl=1,cld=1,fgs=0 X-Junkmail-Premium-Raw: score=39/50,refid=2.7.2:2015.1.18.163923:17:39.532,ip=81.156.245.240,rules=__HAS_MSGID, __SANE_MSGID, MSGID_32HEX_LC, INVALID_MSGID_NO_FQDN, __MSGID_32HEX, __HAS_FROM, __PHISH_FROM2, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL_FROM, __TO_MALFORMED_2, __TO_NO_NAME, __REFERENCES, __BOUNCE_CHALLENGE_SUBJ, __BOUNCE_NDR_SUBJ_EXEMPT, __MIME_VERSION, __CT, __CTYPE_MULTIPART_ALT, __CTYPE_HAS_BOUNDARY, __CTYPE_MULTIPART, __HAS_X_PRIORITY, __HAS_MSMAIL_PRI, __HAS_X_MAILER, USER_AGENT_OE, __OUTLOOK_MUA_1, __USER_AGENT_MS_GENERIC, __ANY_URI, __URI_NO_WWW, __URI_NO_PATH, __CP_NAME_BODY, __SUBJ_ALPHA_NEGATE, __FRAUD_WINNINGS, SUPERLONG_LINE, __HAS_HTML, HTML_NO_HTTP, BODY_SIZE_10000_PLUS, BODYTEXTH_SIZE_10000_LESS, __MIME_HTML, __TAG_EXISTS_HTML, RDNS_GENERIC_POOLED, __URI_NS, SXL_IP_DYNAMIC[240.245.156.81.fur], RDNS_SUSP_GENERIC, __PHISH_FROM, __OUTLOOK_MUA, RDNS_SUSP, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL, FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK, REFERENCES X-CTCH-Spam: Unknown Received: from gnat (81.156.245.240) by rgout03.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk (8.6.122.06) (authenticated as alan.melia@btinternet.com) id 54BBCB4E00EE6254 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:33:18 +0000 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=btinternet.com; s=btcpcloud; t=1422228799; bh=GIHAohjROQTsFylj1PLOAFZnYP3Wm+WrsWm/PL6el2A=; h=Message-ID:From:To:References:Subject:Date:MIME-Version:X-Mailer; b=q87Ws1K93xyo7I32BWONdRDB1SILGJch4sCIllHmvfJFsdHKVaBeqBSahOdXbwa5NxjWtgJ7+6iOjrKi5wreqhix3f5qT6uMaWX2HYur8zIlIg1tPavdZTvCjted1N2Tvu8aVqNxW5IdfnZmEgc8gX9rC2zqDOYin7y8wymXRSU= Message-ID: From: "Alan Melia" To: References: <636B57212DC44172B6DE9C87414A318F@AGB> <54C54C24.2030906@freenet.de> <9CB91DD3D8484B3AB8C0FB909E9635E4@AGB> <54C557EB.6060509@freenet.de> Date: Sun, 25 Jan 2015 23:00:41 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.5931 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.6157 X-Scan-Signature: 16ae5a6b0cd8af8ba18c7df6d1df8b5a Subject: Re: LF: Just like the 10 Bus , nothing for years , then 477 UK>VK :) Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_00A5_01D038F2.BE3E7630" X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.56 on 10.1.3.10 Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 2155 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_00A5_01D038F2.BE3E7630 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Ah you are "chalk and cheesing" again. ZL to KL7 is a sea path lower = attenuation probably higher power ( I think emergency sets ran 250W to = 500W except in lifeboats). The ZL to RU (Vladivostok) (also a = north-south path all in darkness at the same time) was one of the first = long ones to be cracked on 136kHz but required a lot more power than you = are running over a path with light and dark plus summer in VK. For some = reason the VE7/KL7 to ZL was never conquored on 136kHz as far as I = remember. I dont see how 8sec difference to GM validates it unless you know the = timing accuracy at both stations. Other weak ids have have matched = element start times. There are no seconds quoted on that spot, the other = three UK spots are 2mins before the GM deep search not 4 mins as you = were quoting earlier.=20 Was anyone else transmitting? if not the shortens the odds to chosing = your call. I am surprised the GM needed deep search at 180miles when the = Essex station copied 27dB stronger without deep search. Ok there could = be some fading in that but no earlier or later straight copy?? The = system has fired off too many impossible spots to be taken too seriously = on a couple of optimistic ones.....it statistics! You are doing a statistical evaluation. Most statisticians would want to = know the probability of a genuine match together with, and just as = important, the probability of a false match. Even then they would = require more than "one data point" for claiming a result.....remember = the LHC's much quoted 5sigma ?? 3sigma says if you repeat the experiment 100 times you will get the same = result in 98. At one-sigma you will only get slightly more similar = results to completly different ones (its around 60/40) and is not too = convincing. The only reliable way to prove a contact has always been to exchange = unknown information. I doubt you will convince many that this is more = than (generously) "a possible" (as the Whizzo-prang boys of the RAF used = to say, and they were notoriously optimistic :-)) ) Alan ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Graham=20 To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 Sent: Sunday, January 25, 2015 9:24 PM Subject: Re: LF: Just like the 10 Bus , nothing for years , then 477 = UK>VK :) The unknown .. The stand alone Opera APP is responsible for the off air = detection , the web linking distributes the spots to other = users and the psk-map =20 With the introduction of the dynamic option , web data is used = to populate the search lists from Tx beacons and x 2 same call = decodes the detection/decode time stamps , originated by the = Tx/Rx stations , which all ways existed , are now being utilised = to test for time windows=20 Worst case are loan wolf Tx and Rx , then its down to time = alone to validate the deep-search , =20 opera normal is a data Tx so extracts the call from the Tx = , false decodes have real call formats with random values , = false detections have real calls but random time stamps ,=20 eg vo1na > ku4xr last night , from the data base 1 spot can be = seen to be false , others are validated by UK decodes , the = later G8HUH spots would need access to the TX end times to = evaluate , qsb bringing opera into range at times , handy as = a time stamp for no web linked Tx stations =20 73-G,=20 From: wolf_dl4yhf=20 Sent: Sunday, January 25, 2015 8:54 PM To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 Subject: Re: LF: Just like the 10 Bus , nothing for years , then 477 = UK>VK :) Hi Graham, Thanks for clarification. Am 25.01.2015 21:41, schrieb Graham: Well Wolf , there is a good paper trail in the system for = this one .. =20 The system history shows , GM4 and VK spots are time stamped = less than 8 seconds difference, so validated the spot=20 also VK shows no decodes or detections in the previous 24 = Hours or since , opera has a very low false detection level =20 Ok, I would be convinced if Opera didn't exchange so much information = about who actually transmits, and where, and when, over the internet.. I = wouldn't say it's impossible to that this """decode""" is real, but I = wouldn't call these """decodes""" from this "closed source black box = named Opera" too reliable. "Just because the computer says something doesn't mean we should take = it for granted". Cheers,=20 Wolf . ------=_NextPart_000_00A5_01D038F2.BE3E7630 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Ah you are "chalk and cheesing" again. = ZL to KL7 is=20 a sea path lower attenuation probably higher power ( I think emergency = sets ran=20 250W to 500W except in lifeboats). The ZL to RU (Vladivostok) (also = a=20 north-south path all in darkness at the same time) was one of the first = long=20 ones to be cracked on 136kHz but required a lot more power than you are = running=20 over a path with light and dark plus summer in VK. For some reason the = VE7/KL7=20 to ZL was never conquored on 136kHz as far as I remember.
 
I dont see how 8sec difference to GM = validates it=20 unless you know the timing accuracy at both stations. Other weak ids = have have=20 matched element start times. There are no seconds quoted on that spot, = the other=20 three UK spots are 2mins before the GM deep search not 4 mins as you = were=20 quoting earlier.
 
Was anyone else transmitting? if not = the shortens=20 the odds to chosing your call. I am surprised the GM needed deep search = at=20 180miles when the Essex station copied 27dB stronger without deep = search. Ok=20 there could be some fading in that but no earlier or later straight = copy?? The=20 system has fired off too many impossible spots to be taken too seriously = on a=20 couple of optimistic ones.....it statistics!
 
You are doing a statistical evaluation. = Most=20 statisticians would want to know the probability of a genuine match = together=20 with, and just as important, the probability of a false match. Even then = they=20 would require more than "one data point" for claiming a = result.....remember the=20 LHC's much quoted 5sigma ??
3sigma says if you repeat the = experiment 100 times=20 you will get the same result in 98. At one-sigma you will only get = slightly more=20 similar results to completly different ones (its around 60/40) and is = not too=20 convincing.
 
The only reliable way to prove a = contact has always=20 been to exchange unknown information. I doubt you will convince many = that this=20 is more than (generously) "a possible" (as the Whizzo-prang boys of the = RAF used=20 to say, and they were notoriously optimistic :-))  )
 
Alan
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Graham
Sent: Sunday, January 25, 2015 = 9:24=20 PM
Subject: Re: LF: Just like the = 10 Bus ,=20 nothing for years , then 477 UK>VK :)

The unknown ..
 
The  stand alone  Opera  APP  is  =20 responsible   for the  off  air  = detection =20 ,  the  web linking   distributes  the =20 spots  to  other  users  and  the  = psk-map =20
 
With the  introduction  of the  dynamic  = option=20 ,  web data  is  used  to  populate  = the =20 search  lists  from Tx beacons  and   x = 2  =20 same call  decodes  the  detection/decode  = time =20 stamps ,  originated  by  the   Tx/Rx =20 stations , which  all ways   existed , are = now =20 being  utilised  to  test  for  time =20 windows 
 
Worst  case  are  loan wolf  Tx  = and =20 Rx  , then its  down to   time  alone = to =20 validate  the  deep-search  ,  
 opera  normal  is a  data  Tx  = so =20 extracts  the  call  from the  Tx  , =20 false  decodes    have  real  call =20 formats  with  random  values  , false =20 detections  have  real calls  but  = random  =20 time  stamps  ,
 
eg  vo1na  > ku4xr last night ,  from the  = data  base 1 spot  can be  seen  to  be  = false=20 ,  others  are  validated  by  UK   = decodes  , the  later  G8HUH   spots =20 would  need  access  to the  TX end  = times =20 to  evaluate ,  qsb  bringing  opera  = into =20 range  at  times  ,  handy  as  a = time =20 stamp  for  no  web linked  Tx stations  =
 
73-G,
 
 
 

From: wolf_dl4yhf
Sent: Sunday, January 25, 2015 8:54 PM
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org= =20
Subject: Re: LF: Just like the 10 Bus , nothing for years = , then=20 477 UK>VK :)

Hi Graham,

Thanks for=20 clarification.

Am 25.01.2015 21:41, schrieb Graham:
Well  Wolf ,  there  is a good  paper = trail =20 in the  system  for  this  one ..   =
 
The  system  history  shows  ,  GM4 = and=20  VK spots are  time  stamped   less = than 8=20 seconds difference, so  validated  the  spot =
also  VK shows  no decodes  or =20 detections  in the  previous  24 Hours  or  = since ,=20 opera has a  very low  false  detection  level =  =20
Ok, I would be convinced if Opera didn't = exchange so=20 much information about who actually transmits, and where, and when, = over the=20 internet.. I wouldn't say it's impossible to that this """decode""" is = real,=20 but I wouldn't call these  """decodes""" from this "closed source = black=20 box named Opera" too reliable.

"Just because the computer says=20 something doesn't mean we should take it for=20 granted".




Cheers,
  Wolf=20 .

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