Return-Path: X-Spam-DCC: paranoid 1233; Body=2 Fuz1=2 Fuz2=2 X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.1.3 (2006-06-01) on lipkowski.org X-Spam-Level: * X-Spam-Status: No, score=1.8 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DNS_FROM_AHBL_RHSBL, FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK,HTML_50_60,HTML_MESSAGE,SPF_PASS autolearn=no version=3.1.3 Received: from post.thorcom.com (post.thorcom.com [195.171.43.25]) by paranoid.lipkowski.org (8.13.7/8.13.7) with ESMTP id u27EbUkJ028366 for ; Mon, 7 Mar 2016 15:37:30 +0100 Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1acwCC-0006cm-DH for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 14:31:40 +0000 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1acwCB-0006cd-Oy for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 14:31:39 +0000 Received: from rgout0407.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk ([65.20.0.220]) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtp (Exim 4.86) (envelope-from ) id 1acwC9-00012m-2a for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 07 Mar 2016 14:31:38 +0000 X-OWM-Source-IP: 81.129.182.138 (GB) X-OWM-Env-Sender: alan.melia@btinternet.com X-CTCH-RefID: str=0001.0A090201.56DD90C7.0397,ss=1,re=0.000,recu=0.000,reip=0.000,cl=1,cld=1,fgs=0 X-Junkmail-Premium-Raw: score=45/50,refid=2.7.2:2016.3.7.131816:17:45.636,ip=81.129.182.138,rules=__HAS_MSGID, __SANE_MSGID, MSGID_32HEX_LC, INVALID_MSGID_NO_FQDN, __MSGID_32HEX, __HAS_FROM, __PHISH_FROM2, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL_FROM, __TO_MALFORMED_2, __TO_NO_NAME, __BOUNCE_CHALLENGE_SUBJ, __BOUNCE_NDR_SUBJ_EXEMPT, __SUBJ_ALPHA_END, __MIME_VERSION, __CT, __CTYPE_MULTIPART_ALT, __CTYPE_HAS_BOUNDARY, __CTYPE_MULTIPART, __HAS_X_PRIORITY, __HAS_MSMAIL_PRI, __HAS_X_MAILER, USER_AGENT_OE, __OUTLOOK_MUA_1, __USER_AGENT_MS_GENERIC, __ANY_URI, __URI_NO_WWW, __SUBJ_ALPHA_NEGATE, SUPERLONG_LINE, __HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2_1, __HAS_HTML, HTML_NO_HTTP, BODY_SIZE_10000_PLUS, BODYTEXTH_SIZE_3000_MORE, __MIME_HTML, __TAG_EXISTS_HTML, RDNS_GENERIC_POOLED, __URI_NS, SXL_IP_DYNAMIC[138.182.129.81.fur], RDNS_SUSP_GENERIC, __PHISH_FROM, HASHBUSTER_BLOCK_V2, __OUTLOOK_MUA, RDNS_SUSP, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL, FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK, NO_URI_HTTPS X-CTCH-Spam: Unknown Received: from gnat (81.129.182.138) by rgout04.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk (8.6.122.06) (authenticated as alan.melia@btinternet.com) id 56D82726006DDC26 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 7 Mar 2016 14:30:39 +0000 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=btinternet.com; s=btcpcloud; t=1457361040; bh=ybJlBSH4fXkyF2QmOlEt28RHqYYcIlhhzcdRSLkLoNw=; h=Message-ID:From:To:References:Subject:Date:MIME-Version:X-Mailer; b=s75qThs9b8jDBOxSMMZ39VWKLr/TZ9o35Zm92SB5q+sieIokCy6+Mlgjnr+qt2JkuNgVyP6a4VG7P1PS65hScy9Sn2X68MYlutYSyrtUT007uzKL3xtvIYb7K11oCW6rAKX++aTMgIBD7g2beRgvrXS/BbGW7g9/Dpi2kcQNnic= Message-ID: <9143839F868545288751B296FF682379@gnat> From: "Alan Melia" To: References: <8D3450D43313D4D-1358-E77F@webmail-vd003.sysops.aol.com> <56DC29C8.3010604@posteo.de> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD4BF@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be>,<56DD2595.5040506@no3m.net> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD7D8@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be>,<56DD5A82.70203@posteo.de> <7E7DFBB4D102A04DB5ADC88D66628A4A444DD9C8@ICTS-S-MBX1.luna.kuleuven.be> Date: Mon, 7 Mar 2016 14:27:20 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.5931 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.6157 X-Scan-Signature: a0f46fbe63374a47005781d602fd7e9e Subject: Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0045_01D1787D.77205DB0" X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false X-Scanned-By: MIMEDefang 2.56 on 10.1.3.11 Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 7241 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0045_01D1787D.77205DB0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Rik I looked at your initial posting and the first thing I noticed = was the Pacific DX was all before the CME impact and conditions re Dst = were good.=20 I have pondered the use of WSPR for propagation research and have given = up on it at the moment. My opinion is that there are too many unknowns = to really make any worthwhile detailed predictions on the basis of a few = spots. Again I may just be being cynical (but that is the nature of = "the scientific method" :-)) ) To explain.....I feel it just as = necessary to consider no-spots as spots.......but your other message = suggests that there was a no-spot period because the TA station was not = transmitting. I am also suspicious of a cluster like you point out. I = wonder if because of internet connectivity whether one receiver says "ah = WD2xyz was received a few km away so that noise must be WD2xyz". There = has also been much discussion over the last 9 months of spots not being = recorded centrally despite attempted uploads. This may be due to s/w = deficiencies or network contention now there are so many "listeners" It = would seem that more than one central logging site is necessary, = probably in different continents to allow for these problems. Also as = Andy G4JNT says there is always the probability of "false positives" in = any statistical process, and multiple occurances are needed to reduce = this probability......think the so-called 5-sigma levels often quoted by = CERN on their expeiments. I can't remember the exact levels but 3-sigma = is a probability of less than about 2 chances in 100 observations of = getting a "false positive". One would need much more data to achieve = even those levels with WSPR spots. On the other hand there is the possibility that the early morning spots = are the result of the "hot electron" aborption from the precipitated = electrons killing the manmade night-time noise early, and the range (3 = or 4 night-time hops) just happening to add constructively. also the = result of the impact around 00:00z distorts the envelope of the = magnetosphere. This could quite possibly lead lead to a foussing effect = or favourable constructive fading.=20 In conclusion .....I dont know!! but these occasions are always = interesting and fun :-)) Alan G3NYK ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Rik Strobbe=20 To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 Sent: Monday, March 07, 2016 12:51 PM Subject: RE: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night Hi Stefan, all, to get the facts right: there were many other EU's "listening" at that = time (> 30), but any one (you) at less than 500 km from the JN68 group. So it's not sure how focussed the propagation was. But is nevertheless = remarkable that serval other Eu's that are known to have "good ears" = didn't copy any TA last night. BTW, in my earlier list I did miss the 05:02 UTC copy at DL4RAJ, the = complete sequence is: 2016-03-07 04:40 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33=20 2016-03-07 04:52 WG2XXM 0.475711 -30 0 EM15lj 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 8406 40=20 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -8 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33=20 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -16 0 DM33xt 5 DH5RAE JN68qv 9352 33=20 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -22 0 DM33xt 5 DJ0ABR JN68nt 9346 33=20 2016-03-07 05:12 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33=20 2016-03-07 05:00 WG2XKA 0.475723 -25 0 FN33lq 1 DL4RAJ JN68kj 6292 53=20 It seems that the propagation peaked at +/- 05:00 UTC. The fact that DL4RAJ copied most of it is probably due to his "good = ears" (last night DL4RAJ had 6 copies of EA5DOM, while just 1 for DJ0ABR = and nil for DH5RAE). Maybe G3NYK and/or PA0RDT can link strange propagation this to some = propagation mechanism / solar event? 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T -------------------------------------------------------------------------= ----- Van: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org = [owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] namens DK7FC = [selberdenken@posteo.de] Verzonden: maandag 7 maart 2016 11:40 Aan: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Onderwerp: Re: LF: strange MF TA propagation last night Wow, very impressive. As we saw in the past, JN68 is a special field... The dst plot showed a dramatical dip. On LF we think that propagation = must be down for days but on MF i thought there can be miracles. Thus i = started the TX over the night. And see here, the miracle happened! 73, Stefan Am 07.03.2016 09:15, schrieb Rik Strobbe:=20 I just noticed very strange TA propagation on MF last night: During a very short period (04:40 - 05:02) 3 US stations were copied = in southern Germany, but nowhere else in Europe: 2016-03-07 04:40 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 = 33=20 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -16 0 DM33xt 5 DH5RAE JN68qv = 9352 33=20 2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -22 0 DM33xt 5 DJ0ABR = JN68nt 9346 33=20 2016-03-07 04:52 WG2XXM 0.475711 -30 0 EM15lj 5 DL4RAJ = JN68kj 8406 40=20 2016-03-07 05:00 WG2XKA 0.475723 -25 0 FN33lq 1 DL4RAJ = JN68kj 6292 53=20 The signals were partially very strong (up to -16dB) and the 3 EU = stations are located close together. Also the distances are remarkable, up to 9367 km. Based on WSPRNET data at least a dozen other stations were receiving = WSPR in Western Europe at that time, but not a single copy from them! During the same time period one German station was copied in the US: 2016-03-07 04:54 DK7FC 0.475682 -26 0 JN49ik 1 WA3TTS/2 = EN90xn 6636 298=20 2016-03-07 05:04 DK7FC 0.475682 -20 0 JN49ik 1 WG2XJM = EN91wr 6557 299=20 2016-03-07 05:04 DK7FC 0.475684 -17 0 JN49ik 1 WE2XGR = FN31ls 6099 295=20 2016-03-07 05:14 DK7FC 0.475680 -22 1 JN49ik 1 WG2XKA = FN33lq 5970 297 Further there was also some trans Pacific DX: Hawaii-Australia: 2016-03-06 10:36 WH2XCR 0.475798 -31 0 BL11je 1 VK2XGJ = QF55jl 8278 222=20 2016-03-06 15:12 VK4YB 0.475617 -24 -1 QG62ku 5 WH2XCR = BL11je 7597 50=20 2016-03-06 15:06 WH2XCR 0.475798 -26 0 BL11je 1 VK4YB = QG62ku 7597 227=20 Australia-Japan: 2016-03-06 15:08 VK3ELV 0.475775 -27 1 QF33bq 5 JH1INM = PM95iq 8043 354=20 Hawaii-mainland US: 2016-03-06 07:58 WG2XKA 0.475724 -28 0 FN33lq 1 WH2XCR = BL11je 7945 282=20 2016-03-06 08:02 WH2XCR 0.475798 -27 -1 BL11je 1 WG2XJM = EN91wr 7413 52=20 2016-03-06 07:48 WG2XJM 0.475782 -22 -1 EN91wr 5 WH2XCR = BL11je 7413 278=20 2016-03-06 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -30 0 BL11je 1 SWL/K9 EN61 = 6844 53=20 2016-03-06 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -28 0 BL11je 1 WB0VAK = EN34ia 6328 50=20 2016-03-06 07:58 WG2XWS 0.475792 -19 0 DH89 1 WA3TTS/2 = EN90xn 6153 21=20 2016-03-06 07:58 WG2XWS 0.475652 -23 0 DH89 1 WB0VAK EN34ia = 6144 9=20 2016-03-06 07:34 WG2XIQ 0.475611 -18 0 EM12mp 5 WH2XCR = BL11je 6030 274=20 2016-03-06 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475799 -27 0 BL11je 1 WG2XIQ EM12 = 6023 65=20 2016-03-06 07:34 WG2XXM 0.475712 -13 -1 EM15lj 5 WH2XCR = BL11je 6007 272=20 2016-03-06 07:32 WH2XCR 0.475798 -28 0 BL11je 1 WG2XXM = EM15lj 6007 61=20 73, Rik ON7YD - OR7T ------=_NextPart_000_0045_01D1787D.77205DB0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Rik I looked at your initial posting = and the=20 first thing I noticed was the Pacific DX was all before the CME = impact and=20 conditions re Dst were good.
 
I have pondered the use of WSPR for = propagation=20 research and have given up on it at the moment. My opinion is that there = are too=20 many unknowns to really make any worthwhile detailed predictions on the = basis of=20 a few spots.  Again I may just be being cynical  (but that is = the=20 nature of "the scientific method"  :-))  ) To explain.....I = feel it=20 just as necessary to consider no-spots as spots.......but your other = message=20 suggests that there was a no-spot period because the TA station was not=20 transmitting. I am also suspicious of a cluster like you point out. = I=20 wonder if because of internet connectivity whether one receiver says "ah = WD2xyz=20 was received a few km away so that noise must be WD2xyz". There has = also=20 been much discussion over the last 9 months of spots not being recorded=20 centrally despite attempted uploads. This may be due to s/w deficiencies = or=20 network contention now there are so many "listeners"  It would seem = that=20 more than one central logging site is necessary, probably in = different=20 continents to allow for these problems. Also as Andy G4JNT = says there=20 is always the probability of "false positives" in any statistical = process, and=20 multiple occurances are needed to reduce this probability......think the = so-called 5-sigma levels often quoted by CERN on their expeiments. I = can't=20 remember the exact levels but 3-sigma is a probability of less than = about 2=20 chances in 100 observations of getting a "false positive". One would = need much=20 more data to achieve even those levels with WSPR spots.
 
On the other hand there is the = possibility that the=20 early morning spots are the result of the "hot electron" aborption from = the=20 precipitated electrons killing the manmade night-time noise early, and = the range=20 (3 or 4 night-time hops) just happening to add constructively. also the = result=20 of the impact around  00:00z distorts the envelope of the = magnetosphere.=20 This could quite possibly lead lead to a foussing effect or=20 favourable constructive fading.
 
In conclusion .....I dont know!!  = but these=20 occasions are always interesting and=20 fun  :-))
 
Alan
G3NYK
 
----- Original Message -----
From:=20 Rik Strobbe
Sent: Monday, March 07, 2016 = 12:51=20 PM
Subject: RE: LF: strange MF TA=20 propagation last night

Hi Stefan, all,

 

to get the facts=20 right: there were many other EU's "listening" at that time (>=20 30), but any one (you) at less than 500 = km from the JN68 group.

So it's not sure how focussed = the propagation was. But = is nevertheless remarkable that serval other Eu's that are known to have = "good ears" didn't copy any TA last night.

 

BTW, in my earlier list=20 I did miss the 05:02 UTC copy at DL4RAJ, the complete sequence is:

 

2016-03-07 04:40 WH2XND=20 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33=20
2016-03-07 04:52 WG2XXM = 0.475711 -30=20 0 EM15lj 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 8406 40=20
2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND = 0.475740 -8=20 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33=20
2016-03-07 05:02 WH2XND = 0.475740 -16=20 0 DM33xt 5 DH5RAE JN68qv 9352 33 =
2016-03-07=20 05:02 WH2XND 0.475740 -22 0 DM33xt 5 DJ0ABR JN68nt 9346 33
2016-03-07=20 05:12 WH2XND 0.475740 -30 0 DM33xt 5 DL4RAJ JN68kj 9367 33

2016-03-07 05:00 WG2XKA=20 0.475723 -25 0 FN33lq 1 DL4RAJ JN68kj 6292 53 =

 

It seems that the propagation peaked at +/- 05:00 UTC.

The fact that DL4RAJ copied most of it = is probably due to his "good ears"=20 (last night DL4RAJ had 6=20 copies of EA5DOM, while just 1 for DJ0ABR and nil for DH5RAE).

 

Maybe G3NYK = and/or PA0RDT can link strange propagation this to some propagation mechanism / solar event?

 

73, Rik  ON7YD - OR7T

 

Van: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=20 [owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] namens DK7FC=20 [selberdenken@posteo.de]
Verzonden: maandag 7 maart 2016=20 11:40
Aan: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Onderwerp: = Re: LF:=20 strange MF TA propagation last night

Wow, very impressive.
As we saw in the past, JN68 is a special = field...

The dst plot showed a dramatical dip. On LF we think = that=20 propagation must be down for days but on MF i thought there can be = miracles.=20 Thus i started the TX over the night. And see here, the miracle=20 happened!

73, Stefan

Am 07.03.2016 09:15, schrieb Rik = Strobbe:=20

I just noticed very strange=20 TA propagation on MF last night:

 

During a very short period (04:40 - 05:02) 3 US=20 stations were copied in southern=20 Germany, but nowhere else in Europe:

 

2016-03-07=20 = 04:40 WH2XND 0.475740 -30  0 DM33xt 5&= nbsp;DL4RAJ  JN68kj 9367 33=20
2016-03-07=20 = 05:02 WH2XND  0.475740 -16  0  DM= 33xt  5  DH5RAE   JN68qv  93= 52=20  33
2016-03-07 05:02  WH2XND  0.475740=20  -22=20 =  0  DM33xt  5  DJ0ABR   = ;JN68nt  9346=20  33
2016-03-07 04:52  WG2XXM  0.475711=20  -30=20 =  0  EM15lj  5  DL4RAJ   = ;JN68kj  8406=20  40
2016-03-07 05:00  WG2XKA  0.475723=20  -25=20 =  0  FN33lq  1  DL4RAJ   = ;JN68kj  6292=20  53

 

The signals were partially very strong = (up to=20 -16dB) and the 3 EU stations are located close together.

Also the distances are remarkable, up to 9367 km.

Based on WSPRNET data at least a=20 dozen other stations were receiving WSPR in = Western Europe at that time, but not a=20 single copy from them!

 

During the same time period one German = station=20 was copied in the US:

 

2016-03-07=20 04:54  DK7FC  0.475682  -26=20 =  0  JN49ik  1  WA3TTS/2  EN9= 0xn  6636=20  298
2016-03-07 05:04  DK7FC  0.475682=20  -20=20 =  0  JN49ik  1  WG2XJM   = ;EN91wr  6557=20  299
2016-03-07 05:04  DK7FC  0.475684=20  -17=20 =  0  JN49ik  1  WE2XGR   = ;FN31ls  6099=20  295
2016-03-07 05:14  DK7FC  0.475680=20  -22=20 =  1  JN49ik  1  WG2XKA   = ;FN33lq  5970=20  297

 

Further there was also some trans Pacific DX:

 

Hawaii-Australia:

 

2016-03-06=20 10:36  WH2XCR  0.475798  -31=20 =  0  BL11je  1  VK2XGJ   = ;QF55jl  8278=20  222
2016-03-06 15:12  VK4YB  0.475617=20  -24=20 =  -1  QG62ku  5  WH2XCR  &nbs= p;BL11je  7597=20  50
2016-03-06 15:06  WH2XCR  0.475798=20  -26=20 =  0  BL11je  1  VK4YB   = QG62ku  7597=20  227

 

Australia-Japan:

 

2016-03-06=20 15:08  VK3ELV  0.475775  -27=20 =  1  QF33bq  5  JH1INM   = ;PM95iq  8043=20  354

 

Hawaii-mainland US:

 

2016-03-06=20 07:58  WG2XKA  0.475724  -28=20 =  0  FN33lq  1  WH2XCR   = ;BL11je  7945=20  282
2016-03-06 08:02  WH2XCR  0.475798 =  -27=20 =  -1  BL11je  1  WG2XJM  &nbs= p;EN91wr  7413=20  52
2016-03-06 07:48  WG2XJM  0.475782=20  -22=20 =  -1  EN91wr  5  WH2XCR  &nbs= p;BL11je  7413=20  278
2016-03-06 07:32  WH2XCR  0.475798 =  -30=20 =  0  BL11je  1  SWL/K9   = ;EN61  6844=20  53
2016-03-06 07:32  WH2XCR  0.475798=20  -28=20 =  0  BL11je  1  WB0VAK   = ;EN34ia  6328=20  50
2016-03-06 07:58  WG2XWS  0.475792=20  -19=20 =  0  DH89  1  WA3TTS/2  EN90x= n  6153=20  21
2016-03-06 07:58  WG2XWS  0.475652=20  -23=20 =  0  DH89  1  WB0VAK   E= N34ia  6144=20  9
2016-03-06 07:34  WG2XIQ  0.475611 =  -18=20 =  0  EM12mp  5  WH2XCR   = ;BL11je  6030=20  274
2016-03-06 07:32  WH2XCR  0.475799 =  -27=20 =  0  BL11je  1  WG2XIQ   = ;EM12  6023=20  65
2016-03-06 07:34  WG2XXM  0.475712=20  -13=20 =  -1  EM15lj  5  WH2XCR  &nbs= p;BL11je  6007=20  272
2016-03-06 07:32  WH2XCR  0.475798 =  -28=20 =  0  BL11je  1  WG2XXM   = ;EM15lj  6007=20  61

 

73, Rik  ON7YD -=20 OR7T

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