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[195.171.43.25]) by mx.google.com with ESMTP id r5si1698631wik.20.2013.12.16.04.18.33 for ; Mon, 16 Dec 2013 04:18:34 -0800 (PST) Received-SPF: neutral (google.com: 195.171.43.25 is neither permitted nor denied by best guess record for domain of owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org) client-ip=195.171.43.25; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; spf=neutral (google.com: 195.171.43.25 is neither permitted nor denied by best guess record for domain of owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org) smtp.mail=owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; dkim=fail (test mode) header.i=@btinternet.com Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.14) id 1VsWkh-0006zG-4R for rs_out_1@blacksheep.org; Mon, 16 Dec 2013 11:54:23 +0000 Received: from [195.171.43.32] (helo=relay1.thorcom.net) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.14) id 1VsWkg-0006z7-EO for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 16 Dec 2013 11:54:22 +0000 Received: from smtpout03.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk ([65.20.0.123]) by relay1.thorcom.net with esmtp (Exim 4.77) (envelope-from ) id 1VsWkd-0002cH-1F for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 16 Dec 2013 11:54:21 +0000 X-CTCH-RefID: str=0001.0A090206.52AEE9E9.015A,ss=1,re=0.000,recu=0.000,reip=0.000,cl=1,cld=1,fgs=0 X-Junkmail-Premium-Raw: score=39/97,refid=2.7.2:2013.12.13.53314:17:39.532,ip=81.129.183.106,rules=__HAS_MSGID, __SANE_MSGID, MSGID_32HEX_LC, INVALID_MSGID_NO_FQDN, __MSGID_32HEX, __HAS_FROM, __PHISH_FROM2, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL_FROM, __TO_MALFORMED_2, __TO_NO_NAME, __BOUNCE_CHALLENGE_SUBJ, __BOUNCE_NDR_SUBJ_EXEMPT, __MIME_VERSION, __CT, __CTYPE_MULTIPART_ALT, __CTYPE_HAS_BOUNDARY, __CTYPE_MULTIPART, __HAS_X_PRIORITY, __HAS_MSMAIL_PRI, __HAS_X_MAILER, USER_AGENT_OE, __OUTLOOK_MUA_1, __USER_AGENT_MS_GENERIC, __ANY_URI, __FRAUD_BODY_WEBMAIL, __URI_NO_PATH, __CP_URI_IN_BODY, __SUBJ_ALPHA_NEGATE, SUPERLONG_LINE, __HTML_FONT_BLUE, __HAS_HTML, BODY_SIZE_10000_PLUS, BODYTEXTH_SIZE_10000_LESS, __MIME_HTML, __TAG_EXISTS_HTML, __STYLE_RATWARE_NEG, RDNS_GENERIC_POOLED, __URI_NS, SXL_IP_DYNAMIC[106.183.129.81.fur], HTML_50_70, RDNS_SUSP_GENERIC, __PHISH_FROM, __OUTLOOK_MUA, RDNS_SUSP, __FRAUD_WEBMAIL, FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK X-CTCH-Spam: Unknown Received: from gnat (81.129.183.106) by smtpout03.bt.lon5.cpcloud.co.uk (8.6.100.99.10223) (authenticated as alan.melia@btinternet.com) id 52A9B5C5003CAB85 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 16 Dec 2013 11:54:17 +0000 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=btinternet.com; s=btcpcloud; t=1387194859; bh=pwzVRPkZy63nrM4MRTAaBJyb1I8IPFusfWp6NtAA/9c=; h=Message-ID:From:To:References:Subject:Date:MIME-Version:Content-Type:X-Mailer; b=DMT1Dr+d2eGAgkk2kaS045qu0m7exrRsDRb3Zv0vm0PFeJlI11LIQ9R0AEgSQHu7+cb0MRDzs9aVNHlVAduhtIZ/rT/1btIMaxEAIV4RqYKcUllRh2y6zCw3ssJWJT3ve9XvHZclWArQQNJzvsRRca7XwzTpnGruvrat45s8abU= Message-ID: <7939865B4928408EADEE071F88F39C78@gnat> From: "Alan Melia" To: References: <217901cefa4d$afb84d00$0f28e700$@comcast.net> Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013 11:38:29 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 6.00.2900.5931 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.6157 X-Antivirus: avast! (VPS 131215-1, 15/12/2013), Outbound message X-Antivirus-Status: Clean X-Spam-Score: 0.0 (/) X-Spam-Report: Spam detection software, running on the system "relay1.thorcom.net", has identified this incoming email as possible spam. The original message has been attached to this so you can view it (if it isn't spam) or label similar future email. If you have any questions, see the administrator of that system for details. Content preview: Hi Jim I do not know of any better predictor of the probability of good conditions on LF than Dst. One problem is that most things degrade the signal :-)) Also because the ionospheric return is from around 90 to 100km altitude at night, several hops are required for completion of the path. Fading is a big problem with the possibility that, at long wavelengths, multipath may keep the received level depressed for long periods even though the apparent reflection height is continually changing. [...] Content analysis details: (0.0 points, 5.0 required) pts rule name description ---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- -0.0 RCVD_IN_DNSWL_NONE RBL: Sender listed at http://www.dnswl.org/, no trust [65.20.0.123 listed in list.dnswl.org] 0.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message 0.0 T_DKIM_INVALID DKIM-Signature header exists but is not valid 0.0 T_REMOTE_IMAGE Message contains an external image X-Scan-Signature: 5624f0ff3acda0934438723229c028ec Subject: LF: Re: RE: Hartmut Wolff's grabber... Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0035_01CEFA53.57A53F00" X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 2.63 (2004-01-11) on post.thorcom.com X-Spam-Level: ** X-Spam-Status: No, hits=2.1 required=5.0 tests=FORGED_MUA_OUTLOOK,HTML_40_50, HTML_MESSAGE autolearn=no version=2.63 X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rs_out_1@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false Status: O X-Status: X-Keywords: X-UID: 934 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01CEFA53.57A53F00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Jim I do not know of any better predictor of the probability of good con= ditions on LF than Dst. One problem is that most things degrade the signal = :-)) Also because the ionospheric return is from around 90 to 100km altitud= e at night, several hops are required for completion of the path. Fading is= a big problem with the possibility that, at long wavelengths, multipath ma= y keep the received level depressed for long periods even though the appare= nt reflection height is continually changing. I have also seen what I have refered to as "leakage", though I am unsure of= the mechanism. After long periods of quiet geomagnetic conditions the rece= ived signal levels are often disappointing, despite high Dst levels >-20nT.= Signals then seem to recover after a low level geomagnetic event, around K= p=3D4. This low level of activity would not normally show any effect, but a= fter a period of depressed signal levels it will provide a boost. I have th= e though that though the E-region is ionised mainly from non-solar radiatio= n (cosmic rays etc) and that this may not be sufficient to retain the requi= red refractive index over a long quiet sun period. Could this result in lea= kage of some of the signal into space ? The additional ionisation due to pr= ecipitation from the low level event boosts ionisation at 100km altitude an= d "plugs the gap"....repairs the leak :-) I have no hard evidence for this= other than subjective observations during quiet periods during the solar m= inimum. It may be bunkum, but it works for me. There does not seem to be a majik index that predicts "tonight will be good= ", only a series of effects that can lead to poorer conditions :-(( I gues= s this uncertainty is what makes LF interesting and challenging. Alan G3NYK ----- Original Message ----- From: hvanesce To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org Sent: Monday, December 16, 2013 10:57 AM Subject: LF: RE: Hartmut Wolff's grabber... Most interesting Bob, Considering Dst indices and your reports for the last six weeks, is it sa= fe to say that -50 or greater Dst means some bad days in this band, but ben= ign Dsts are only a fair indicator of potentially good conditions (Dst look= ed good from mid-November through 6 December, for example)? I remember some= appreciated counsel from the group in this regard, back in October. Does a= nyone have a recommendation on a next-best predictive (aiding) metric for p= ropagation quality in this part of the spectrum? Flares? Proton flux? Prefe= rred site for accessing such data? Quite a transition (of signal strength) on Hartmut's grabber, I'd really = like to know what might have caused that. Thanks for some really interestin= g data Bob, Hartmut et al. 73, Jim AA5BW From: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [mailto:owner-rsgb_lf_group@blac= ksheep.org] On Behalf Of Bob Raide Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2013 11:17 PM To: h-wolff@gmx.de; rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Bob Raide Subject: LF: Hartmut Wolff's grabber... Was beginning to look like a "dead" night coming up on 73 band. Up till = 0045, that is, when suddenly decodes began to appear. Starting in transmit= ting WSPR 15 at 2200 this evening no decodes appeared until 0045. I went t= o Hartmut's grabber and the reason was obvious. A signal emerged from noth= ing to what appeared to be a decodable one. Been that way all evening with= usual mild fading. Activity on 500 also seemed to pick-up and Stefan was solid on 136 DFCW a= t that time onward. It's what I find makes these longer waves interesting, to say the least-B= ob, WG2XRS/4 [WG4XRS for short on digi modes] NY --- This email is free from viruses and malware because avast! Antivirus protec= tion is active. http://www.avast.com ------=_NextPart_000_0035_01CEFA53.57A53F00 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Hi Jim I do not know of any better predict= or of the probability of good conditions on LF than Dst. One problem is that mos= t things degrade the signal :-)) Also because the ionospheric return is from = around 90 to 100km altitude at night, several hops are required for complet= ion of the path. Fading is a big problem with the possibility that, at long wavelengths, multipath may keep the received level depressed for long perio= ds even though the apparent reflection height is continually changing.
 
I have also seen what I have refered to as= "leakage", though I am unsure of the mechanism. After long periods of quiet= geomagnetic conditions the received signal levels are often disappointing, = despite high Dst levels >-20nT. Signals then seem to recover after a low= level geomagnetic event, around Kp=3D4. This low level of activity would no= t normally show any effect, but after a period of depressed signal levels it = will provide a boost. I have the though that though the E-region is ionised main= ly from non-solar radiation (cosmic rays etc) and that this may not be suffici= ent to retain the required refractive index over a long quiet sun period. Could= this result in leakage of some of the signal into space ? The additional ionisation due to precipitation from the low level event boosts ionisation = at 100km altitude and "plugs the gap"....repairs the leak :-)  I have no = hard evidence for this other than subjective observations during quiet periods d= uring the solar minimum. It may be bunkum, but it works for me.
 
There does not seem to be a majik index th= at predicts "tonight will be good", only a series of effects that can lead to = poorer conditions :-((  I guess this uncertainty is what makes LF interesting and challenging.
 
Alan
G3NYK
----- Original Message -----
Fro= m: hvan= esce
Sent: Monday, December 16, 2013 10= :57 AM
Subject: LF: RE: Hartmut Wolff's grabber...

Most interesting Bob,

 

Considering Dst indices and your reports for the last six weeks, is it safe to say th= at -50 or greater Dst means some bad days in this band, but benign Dsts are = only a fair indicator of potentially good conditions (Dst looked good from mid-November through 6 December, for example)? I remember some appreciate= d counsel from the group in this regard, back in October. Does anyone have = a recommendation on a next-best predictive (aiding) metric for propagation = quality in this part of the spectrum? Flares? Proton flux? Preferred site= for accessing such data?

 

Quite a transition (of signal strength) on Hartmut=92s grabber, I=92d really li= ke to know what might have caused that. Thanks for some really interesting data= Bob, Hartmut et al.

 

73,

 

Jim AA5BW

 

From: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [mailto:owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep= =2Eorg] On Behalf Of Bob Raide
Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2013 1= 1:17 PM
To: h-wolff@gmx.de; rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Bob Raide
Subject: LF: Hartmut Wolff's grabber...

 

= Was beginning to look like a "dead" night coming up on 73 band.  Up till= 0045, that is, when suddenly decodes began to appear.  Starting in transmitting WSPR 15 at 2200 this evening no decodes appeared until 0045.  I went to Hartmut's grabber and the reason was obvious. = A signal emerged from nothing to what appeared to be a decodable = one.  Been that way all evening with usual mild fading.
Activity= on 500 also seemed to pick-up and Stefan was solid on 136 DFCW at that time = onward.
It's what I find makes these longer waves interesting, to say = the least-Bob, WG2XRS/4 [WG4XRS for short on digi modes] NY



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