Message-ID: <6936447A7AFD447BA4E058CEE109AC7E@gnat>
From: "Alan Melia" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>, <rsgb_lf_group@yahoogroups.co.uk>
References: <B0A94147A67F4A779457A00C30E16C0F@gnat>
Date: Wed, 6 May 2015 11:22:28 +0100
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Subject: LF: Re: [rsgb_lf_group] Solar activity....correction
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Status: O

It now seems I guessed wrong about the source location of the X2.7 flare. It
was from region 2339 on the Solar limb and the associated CME is not aimed
Earthwards. Thanks John W1TAG.

So just the event later today to consider. The Dst has made an upward
excursion and now seems to be heading down.

Alan
G3NYK

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "'Alan Melia' Alan.Melia@btinternet.com [rsgb_lf_group]"
<rsgb_lf_group@yahoogroups.co.uk>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@yahoogroups.co.uk>; <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Sent: Wednesday, May 06, 2015 12:26 AM
Subject: [rsgb_lf_group] Solar activity


> The filament event has thrown off a CME which is sheduled to impact the
> magnetosphere around 1800z on the 6th. The NOAA animation is quite
> dramatic
> and it looks like we will get it dead centre. the radio effect of this is
> somewhat dependent on the direction of the field when it arrives, but
> expect
> aurora and reduced LF signal levels from 6/7th for some following nights.
>
> The region numbered 2335 I think which is fairly central has thrown off an
> X2.7 flare just after 2300z. Expect another possible CME arriving any time
> after 2400z on the 7/8th. If both of these reconnect we could experience
> long period of poor LF propagation.
>
> http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction  for the
> NOAA animation.
>
> Alan
> G3NYK
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------
> Posted by: "Alan Melia" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
> ------------------------------------
>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
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