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Date: Sun, 26 Aug 2001 17:10:36 +0200
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
From: "Claudio Pozzi" <cla.po@tiscalinet.it>
Subject: Re: LF: QRN
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At 08.55 26/08/2001, you wrote:
>Hi All
>The static started yesterday afternoon and is just as bad this morning.
>It is very severe with prolonged bursts, never heard it so bad for a
>long time, considering the wx is excellent in this area with blue sky.
>Perhaps there is a storm in Southern Europe or possibly Africa !! could
>even be NZ.
>The carriers that I mentioned the other day have not been heard since,
>seems odd, but probably were local since no one else heard them.
>73 de Mal/G3KEV

Hi Mal and All,
yesterday afternoon (25/08/2001) I was listening on 80 meters band, at 
16.35 UTC all signals disappeared on 80, 40, 20 meters. I listened only few 
signals on 15 meters. I had a QSO with three OM in a radius of 20 km on 40 
m band with 5/7 signals. Slowly the propagation path become more long, at 
17.12 I had a QSO with a path of 200 km on 40 m band. The fact was noted by 
most OM. Someone was monitoring the 136 kHz band?

Following are some report concerning the solar event, note that the 
propagation effect was in advance respect the maximum of solar flare (note 
the Type II Radio Emission in second report).

73 de Claudio

 >>>> Reports follow

:Issued: 2001 Aug 26 1210 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.
#
#           Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 25 August follow.
Solar flux 199 and Boulder A-index 11.
The Boulder K-index at 1200 UTC on 26 August was 2 (14 nT).

Solar-terrestrial conditions for the last 24 hours follow.
Solar activity was high.
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
A major flare occurred at 1645 UTC on 25 August.

The forecast for the next 24 hours follows.
Solar activity will be moderate to high.
The geomagnetic field will be quiet to active.
A proton event is expected


:Data_list: ALTS.txt
:Issued: 2001 Aug 26 1330 UT
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.
# Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov
# Updated hourly and as Alerts and Warnings are issued.
#
#
#        Alerts and Warnings Issued in the last 24 Hours
#---------------------------------------------------------------------
:ALERTS:

Type II Radio Emission 25 Aug 2001 1632 UT
Comment: Estimated shock velocity = 1280 km/s

X-Ray event X5.3/3B/S17E34 BEG 25 Aug 2001 1623 MAX 25 Aug 2001 1645
END 25 Aug 2001 1704 UT
Comment: Flare occurred in region 9591.

Type IV Radio Emission 25 Aug 2001 1639 UT
Comment: None

Magnetic K-Index of 4 Warning valid from 25 Aug 2001 1720 to 26 Aug
2001 1800 UT
Comment: None

10cm Radio Burst 8100 F.U. 25 Aug 2001 1624 UT Duration 66 Minutes
Comment: Latest Penticton Noon Flux was 175 sfu.

Proton Event >10MeV @ >=10pfu Warning valid from 26 Aug 2001 0800 to 27
Aug 2001 1500 UT
Comment: None

Magnetic A-Index >=30 Watch for 27 Aug 2001 UT
Comment: None

Magnetic A-Index >=30 Watch for 28 Aug 2001 UT
Comment: None

Magnetic K-Index of 4 Observed 25 Aug 2001 from 1500 to 1800 UT
Comment: None


:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2001 Aug 25 2210 UT
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2001
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity has been high.  Region 9591 (S19E32)
produced several M-class flares and an X5/3b event at 25/1645 UTC.
The event had an associated 8100 sfu tenflare and a Type II and Type
IV radio sweep.  SOHO/LASCO images observed a well defined coronal
mass ejection with this event.  This region continues to develop and
retains a large Fki beta-gamma-delta configuration.  Region 9596
(N23E79) was numbered today.  The observed Penticton 10.7 cm flux
for today may also be slightly enhanced as a result of the earlier
event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region 9591 producing M-class flares and a
chance for another major flare from this region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active through the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for 26 August due to possible
coronal hole affects.  Active to minor storm conditions are expected
for 27 and 28 August as a result of the X-class event at 25/1645
UTC.  A greater than 10 MeV proton event is also possible on 26
August from the activity today.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     75/75/50
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Aug 199
Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  190/195/200
90 Day Mean        25 Aug 152
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug  008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-035/035-030/030
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug-28 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/35
Minor storm           05/30/20
Major-severe storm    01/20/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/45/40
Minor storm           10/35/25
Major-severe storm    05/20/15


<<< end of reports

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Claudio Pozzi       http://www.qsl.net/ik2pii       happy Linux user
E-Mail: <cla.po@tiscalinet.it> <ik2pii@amsat.org>
----------------------------------------------------------------------