From: "Dave Sergeant" <dsergeant@btinternet.com>
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Date: Tue, 15 Jul 2003 09:34:24 +0100
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Subject: Re: LF: Re: PROP PREDICTIONS
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On 14 Jul 2003 at 20:43, Alan Melia wrote:

> Hi all, I totally agree with Mal's comments. I have also chatted at
> length with the guys who produce the HF predictions and they worry a
> lot about their work actually discouraging people from putting signals
> out. The HF Propagaion reports are quite difficult because it really
> depends what kind of a station you have. I remember when I ran 400W
> PEP and a 3el beam at 45 feet I worked bands after they had "closed"
> and often was "the only European" when I called in. (the problem is
> that it gets boring after a while). I did find the predictions a
> useful guide to what "should" be happening, but there is no subsistute
> for listening for a beacon and putting out a call or two

The IARU contest this weekend was a good example of this. Those with 
big stations could still work a fair amount of dx, but even those 
runing 100W were moaning of poor conditions on HF, and at this 
station with 5W and a long wire it was decidedly hard work, with very 
little dx even heard. And that was during a major international 
contest where all the bands should be jam packed with USA stations, 
the few Ws I heard were pretty weak.

I rarely consult the propagation predictions. When the bands are wide 
open they are unduly pessimistic, and when poor they only serve to 
tell me what I would be hearing if I had a decent set up. The only 
way is to listen on the bands often when you get a very good feel of 
what you should be hearing on a particular band at a particular time 
of day.

Of course if there is no activity then you will hear nothing. This is 
perhaps even truer at LF where activity is non existant in many 
cases. But perhaps as Mal comments that elusive 'real CW' 
transatlantic QSO cannot be that far away.

73 Dave G3YMC

dsergeant@btinternet.com
http://www.dsergeant.btinternet.co.uk