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Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 15:12:48 +0000 (GMT)
From: ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
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Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
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Thanks Graham. N6RY is a two hop so must have a reasonable S/N margin under=
 normal condx. It is interesting there were no Euro decodes though.=0A=0AAl=
an=0A=0A=0A--- On Fri, 9/3/12, Graham <g8fzk@g8fzk.fsnet.co.uk> wrote:=0A=
=0A> From: Graham <g8fzk@g8fzk.fsnet.co.uk>=0A> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar =
flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow=0A> To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep=
.org=0A> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2012, 14:19=0A> Alan,=0A> =0A> WE6XGR=A0 50=
0 khz=A0=0A> Opera=A0=A0=A0decoded=A0 on the=A0 west=A0=0A> coast=A0 , no=
=A0 decodes =0A> showing=A0 on the=A0 psk-map=A0=0A> into=A0=A0=A0EU last=
=A0 night .=0A> =0A> G.=0A> =0A> =0A> =0A> N1GKE=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A>=
 OPERA=A0=A0=A0 289 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 05:02:51=0A> K3SIW=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=
=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 580 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 04:58:45=0A> AC4IU=A0=A0=
=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 306 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 04:58:44=0A> K4=
RKM=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 585 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 04:58:=
44=0A> WE6XGR=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 0 miles=A0=A0=A0 04=
:58:42=0A> NO3M=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 171 miles=A0=A0=
=A0=0A> 04:50:31=0A> K1CF=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 280 mil=
es=A0=A0=A0=0A> 04:34:06=0A> N6RY=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0=
 2267 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 04:13:33=0A> W1VD=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=
=A0=A0=A0 214 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 03:20:09=0A> WB2LMV=A0=A0=A0 600m=A0=A0=A0=
=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 150 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 02:39:04=0A> W3NF=A0=A0=A0 600m=
=A0=A0=A0=0A> OPERA=A0=A0=A0 233 miles=A0=A0=A0=0A> 00:07:03=0A> =0A> Monit=
or: N6RY Loc DM13ID=0A> Frequency: 0.500 MHz (600m)=0A> Show all seen by N6=
RY=0A> Last report: WE6XGR=0A> at Fri, 09 Mar 2012 04:13:33 GMT=0A> =0A> =
=0A> --------------------------------------------------=0A> From: "ALAN MEL=
IA" <alan.melia@btinternet.com>=0A> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 12:59 PM=
=0A> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>=0A> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flar=
e - major geomagnetic storms=0A> to follow=0A> =0A> > Hi Jay thanks for the=
 confirmation.....:-))=0A> > Also the VLF effects, I have never been quite =
sure of=0A> the effects down =0A> > there.....but they should be similar. I=
 wonder whether=0A> the beacons will =0A> > throw up any data about the 500=
kHz effects over long=0A> distances??=0A> >=0A> > Alan=0A> >=0A> >=0A> > --=
- On Fri, 9/3/12, jrusgrove@comcast.net=0A> <jrusgrove@comcast.net>=0A> wro=
te:=0A> >=0A> >> From: jrusgrove@comcast.net=0A> <jrusgrove@comcast.net>=0A=
> >> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major=0A> geomagnetic storms to fol=
low=0A> >> To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=0A> >> Date: Friday, 9 March, 2=
012, 12:42=0A> >> Alan=0A> >>=0A> >> Thanks for the update and insight.=0A>=
 >>=0A> >> Absolutely no trace of Stefan's signal in CT last=0A> night. A=
=0A> >> few nights back he was 25+ dB s/n (in 28 mHz). Long=0A> distance=0A=
> >> VLF signal levels below normal as well.=0A> >>=0A> >> Jay W1VD=A0 WD2X=
NS=A0 WE2XGR/2=0A> >>=0A> >>=0A> >> ----- Original Message ----- From: "ALA=
N MELIA" =0A> >> <alan.melia@btinternet.com>=0A> >> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blac=
ksheep.org>=0A> >> Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 5:57 AM=0A> >> Subject: Re:=
 LF: Big solar flare - major=0A> geomagnetic storms=0A> >> to follow=0A> >>=
=0A> >>=0A> >> Hi all more geomag storming this morning. It looks=0A> as th=
ough=0A> >> I might have got my timing wrong. However the 56=0A> hours to=
=0A> >> the Kp=3D7 event is a bit slow for such a big event,=0A> and the=0A=
> >> predicted speed of that CME.=0A> >>=0A> >> I suspect this mornings eve=
nt may be what I refered=0A> to=0A> >> yesterday as a "sub-storm". This occ=
urs when the=0A> plasma=0A> >> cloud sweeps past Earth and some is then tra=
pped in=0A> a=0A> >> "magnetic bottle" in the tail of the magnetosphere.=0A=
> The=0A> >> magnetic field becomes highly distorted and twisted=0A> by the=
=0A> >> extra hot charge. Just as in the Sun-spots this=0A> strain is=0A> >=
> relieved as the field snaps back into a lower=0A> energy state.=0A> >> Th=
e excess energy which is released as the field=0A> collapses=0A> >> is tran=
sfered to the plasma "glob". The result is=0A> that two=0A> >> parts of the=
 plasma are fired off at very high=0A> speed. one=0A> >> towads Earth and o=
ne away from Earth (to conserve=0A> >> momentum....a basic law of physics).=
 This mornings=0A> event was=0A> >> the shock of that plasma "bullet" arriv=
ing. I=0A> believe this=0A> >> mornings event may have been of this nature.=
=0A> >>=0A> >> How does it affect LF? The charge from the "bullet"=0A> is=
=0A> >> injected into the ring current so tops up the=0A> charge=0A> >> res=
ervoir, and this lengthens the period of excess=0A> >> attenuation in the n=
ight-time D-layer. There is=0A> some=0A> >> discrepancy between the Dst est=
imates. The Colorado=0A> estimate=0A> >> is running at about -50nT whilst t=
he Kyoto value is=0A> around=0A> >> -150nT. Kyoto is based on a number of g=
round=0A> located=0A> >> magnetometer observations and is prone to rather=
=0A> wild=0A> >> fluctuations, and often "overshoots". The Colorado=0A> plo=
t is=0A> >> based on a calculation using the solar wind=0A> parameters as=
=0A> >> observed by the ACE satellite. From my experience I=0A> find the=0A=
> >> latter to be more useful/meaningful in terms of LF=0A> effects.=0A> >>=
=0A> >> Overall I think this indicates a mild effect. Long=0A> distance=0A>=
 >> night-time paths will be affected for a week or so.=0A> For a=0A> >> go=
od indication of the progress of of the recovery,=0A> watch=0A> >> the Dst =
as it returns to around -20nT....the=0A> indication of=0A> >> quiet, good p=
ropagation conditions. Just before=0A> the=0A> >> conditions settle there c=
an be some exceptionally=0A> good=0A> >> nights, probably caused by favoura=
ble=0A> fading/multipath.=0A> >> These are very location dependent and do n=
ot work=0A> for=0A> >> everyone.=0A> >>=0A> >> However keep watching..... N=
OAA predict the=0A> possibility of=0A> >> more X-Class flares from the curr=
ent spots, with=0A> the=0A> >> associated CMEs.=0A> >>=0A> >> Good LF DXing=
 !!=0A> >>=0A> >> Alan=0A> >> G3NYK=0A> >>=0A> >>=0A> >>=0A> >>=0A> >>=0A> =
> =0A> =0A>