DomainKey-Signature:a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws;
  s=s1024; d=btinternet.com;
  h=X-YMail-OSG:Received:X-Mailer:Message-ID:Date:From:Subject:To:In-Reply-To:MIME-Version:Content-Type:Content-Transfer-Encoding;
  b=KhueOT1ibJEE4gtLMVgjH+aK+p83zlAzbQoPvbZYZ9UL2xT87USKmYwW49DLvzMoIblpgmm+PggcgQ2pbIQfBwy7fGmeXInSEpVOx2VdmgoGzKG64+bB1fiuG5mUv2hQX8yo74q5NBLg1L5LbnIBpkyqhTpINyemV5hlRS2Bj3k=;
Message-ID: <1331297984.78469.YahooMailClassic@web86504.mail.ird.yahoo.com>
Date: Fri, 9 Mar 2012 12:59:44 +0000 (GMT)
From: ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
In-Reply-To: <001b01ccfdf2$0d91e580$8d01a8c0@JAYDELL>
MIME-Version: 1.0
DomainKey-Status: good (testing) 
Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
X-AOL-SCOLL-URL_COUNT: 0  
X-AOL-SCOLL-AUTHENTICATION: mail_rly_antispam_dkim-d229.1 ; domain : btinternet.com DKIM : pass  
x-aol-sid: 3039ac1d408f4f59ff1f3b2b
X-AOL-IP: 195.171.43.25
X-AOL-SPF: domain : blacksheep.org SPF : none


Hi Jay thanks for the confirmation.....:-))=0AAlso the VLF effects, I have =
never been quite sure of the effects down there.....but they should be simi=
lar. I wonder whether the beacons will throw up any data about the 500kHz e=
ffects over long distances??=0A=0AAlan=0A=0A=0A--- On Fri, 9/3/12, jrusgrov=
e@comcast.net <jrusgrove@comcast.net> wrote:=0A=0A> From: jrusgrove@comcast=
.net <jrusgrove@comcast.net>=0A> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major g=
eomagnetic storms to follow=0A> To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=0A> Date: =
Friday, 9 March, 2012, 12:42=0A> Alan=0A> =0A> Thanks for the update and in=
sight.=0A> =0A> Absolutely no trace of Stefan's signal in CT last night. A=
=0A> few nights back he was 25+ dB s/n (in 28 mHz). Long distance=0A> VLF s=
ignal levels below normal as well.=0A> =0A> Jay W1VD=A0 WD2XNS=A0 WE2XGR/2=
=0A> =0A> =0A> ----- Original Message ----- From: "ALAN MELIA" <alan.melia@=
btinternet.com>=0A> To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>=0A> Sent: Friday, Ma=
rch 09, 2012 5:57 AM=0A> Subject: Re: LF: Big solar flare - major geomagnet=
ic storms=0A> to follow=0A> =0A> =0A> Hi all more geomag storming this morn=
ing. It looks as though=0A> I might have got my timing wrong. However the 5=
6 hours to=0A> the Kp=3D7 event is a bit slow for such a big event, and the=
=0A> predicted speed of that CME.=0A> =0A> I suspect this mornings event ma=
y be what I refered to=0A> yesterday as a "sub-storm". This occurs when the=
 plasma=0A> cloud sweeps past Earth and some is then trapped in a=0A> "magn=
etic bottle" in the tail of the magnetosphere. The=0A> magnetic field becom=
es highly distorted and twisted by the=0A> extra hot charge. Just as in the=
 Sun-spots this strain is=0A> relieved as the field snaps back into a lower=
 energy state.=0A> The excess energy which is released as the field collaps=
es=0A> is transfered to the plasma "glob". The result is that two=0A> parts=
 of the plasma are fired off at very high speed. one=0A> towads Earth and o=
ne away from Earth (to conserve=0A> momentum....a basic law of physics). Th=
is mornings event was=0A> the shock of that plasma "bullet" arriving. I bel=
ieve this=0A> mornings event may have been of this nature.=0A> =0A> How doe=
s it affect LF? The charge from the "bullet" is=0A> injected into the ring =
current so tops up the charge=0A> reservoir, and this lengthens the period =
of excess=0A> attenuation in the night-time D-layer. There is some=0A> disc=
repancy between the Dst estimates. The Colorado estimate=0A> is running at =
about -50nT whilst the Kyoto value is around=0A> -150nT. Kyoto is based on =
a number of ground located=0A> magnetometer observations and is prone to ra=
ther wild=0A> fluctuations, and often "overshoots". The Colorado plot is=0A=
> based on a calculation using the solar wind parameters as=0A> observed by=
 the ACE satellite. From my experience I find the=0A> latter to be more use=
ful/meaningful in terms of LF effects.=0A> =0A> Overall I think this indica=
tes a mild effect. Long distance=0A> night-time paths will be affected for =
a week or so. For a=0A> good indication of the progress of of the recovery,=
 watch=0A> the Dst as it returns to around -20nT....the indication of=0A> q=
uiet, good propagation conditions. Just before the=0A> conditions settle th=
ere can be some exceptionally good=0A> nights, probably caused by favourabl=
e fading/multipath.=0A> These are very location dependent and do not work f=
or=0A> everyone.=0A> =0A> However keep watching..... NOAA predict the possi=
bility of=0A> more X-Class flares from the current spots, with the=0A> asso=
ciated CMEs.=0A> =0A> Good LF DXing !!=0A> =0A> Alan=0A> G3NYK=0A> =0A> =0A=
> =0A> =0A>