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Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2012 15:21:18 +0000 (GMT)
From: ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
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Subject: Re: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
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naughty replying to my own post.....of course that depression (on the 7th) =
was from the earlier CME! the one associated with the X5 arrived around 120=
0z but was a very minor event so far. It pushed the Dst up a little but no =
fall is obvious yet (1500z) there is the possibility of a sub-storm I suppo=
se but I doubt this will occur. I think this indicaes the plasma glob bounc=
ed off the magnetosphere like two opposing magnets. So far I dont event thi=
nk there will even be much of a southerly extension to the aurora.=0A=0AAla=
n=0A=0A--- On Thu, 8/3/12, ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com> wrote:=0A=
=0A> From: ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com>=0A> Subject: Re: LF: Re: =
Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow=0A> To: rsgb_lf_group@=
blacksheep.org=0A> Date: Thursday, 8 March, 2012, 14:55=0A> Hi Dave, yes yo=
u are right, it is not=0A> quite as simple as they would have you believe :=
-))=0A> Spaceweather.com always seems to over-hype events=0A> too....well p=
erhaps they are more interested in aurora than=0A> radio prop. =0A> =0A> Th=
e real measure of the severity as far as LF is concerned=0A> is the Dst ind=
ex. Most only give this in retrospect but=0A> Kyoto univ and Colorado univ =
do real-time estimates.....the=0A> latter is the most useful and is derived=
 y processing data=0A> from ACE. If the Dst is pushed down to -300 to -400n=
T we=0A> have a big=A0 and prolonged event. you can follow the=0A> recovery=
 by watching the Dst slowly rise over the following=0A> days.=0A> http://la=
sp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html=0A> =0A> =0A> A qu=
ick check shows a max depression to -140nT on 7th and it=0A> is already bac=
k to -36nT...... so I confirm a minor event=0A> only :-)) levels on 136 an =
500 may be down a little but this=0A> may only be noticable on very long pa=
ths where there are=0A> several passes through the ionosphere, each taking =
some=0A> extra attenuation from the precipitated hot electrons.=0A> =0A> Yo=
u can tell I don't have to rely on Government funding for=0A> my research :=
-))=0A> =0A> The end of the World is nigh!! but in around 9 billion years=
=0A> at my current estimates.....but then I could just be wrong=0A> :-))=0A=
> =0A> Alan=0A> G3NYK=0A> =0A> --- On Thu, 8/3/12, Dave Sergeant <dave@dave=
sergeant.com>=0A> wrote:=0A> =0A> > From: Dave Sergeant <dave@davesergeant.=
com>=0A> > Subject: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic=0A> storms =
to follow=0A> > To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org=0A> > Date: Thursday, 8 Ma=
rch, 2012, 13:34=0A> > Well it seems the media over here are=0A> > going in=
to overdrive (maybe they =0A> > have been watching too many Horizon program=
s..).=0A> > =0A> > Impact arrived at 1105z, but it was North facing. I see=
=0A> it=0A> > has been =0A> > downgraded to a G1 minor storm, though the K =
index has=0A> risen=0A> > to 5. The =0A> > HF bands are still quite lively,=
 plenty of stuff on=0A> 12m. So=0A> > I expect =0A> > this one is really go=
ing to be a damp squib...=0A> > =0A> > 73 Dave G3YMC=0A> > =0A> > On 8 Mar =
2012 at 8:10, Warren Ziegler wrote:=0A> > =0A> > > http://www.nasa.gov/miss=
ion_pages/sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html=0A> > > =0A> > > http://spacew=
eather.com/=0A> > > =0A> > > I imagine that it will take LF a while to reco=
ver=0A> from=0A> > this!=0A> > > =0A> > > Time to get on vhf and work auror=
a propagation!=0A> > >=0A> > http://www.davesergeant.com=0A> > =0A> > =0A> =
>=0A> =0A> =0A>