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Date: Thu, 8 Mar 2012 14:55:31 +0000 (GMT)
From: ALAN MELIA <alan.melia@btinternet.com>
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
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Subject: Re: LF: Re: Big solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow
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Hi Dave, yes you are right, it is not quite as simple as they would have yo=
u believe :-)) Spaceweather.com always seems to over-hype events too....wel=
l perhaps they are more interested in aurora than radio prop. =0A=0AThe rea=
l measure of the severity as far as LF is concerned is the Dst index. Most =
only give this in retrospect but Kyoto univ and Colorado univ do real-time =
estimates.....the latter is the most useful and is derived y processing dat=
a from ACE. If the Dst is pushed down to -300 to -400nT we have a big=A0 an=
d prolonged event. you can follow the recovery by watching the Dst slowly r=
ise over the following days.=0Ahttp://lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dstte=
merin/dsttemerin.html =0A=0AA quick check shows a max depression to -140nT =
on 7th and it is already back to -36nT...... so I confirm a minor event onl=
y :-)) levels on 136 an 500 may be down a little but this may only be notic=
able on very long paths where there are several passes through the ionosphe=
re, each taking some extra attenuation from the precipitated hot electrons.=
=0A=0AYou can tell I don't have to rely on Government funding for my resear=
ch :-))=0A=0AThe end of the World is nigh!! but in around 9 billion years a=
t my current estimates.....but then I could just be wrong :-))=0A=0AAlan=0A=
G3NYK=0A=0A--- On Thu, 8/3/12, Dave Sergeant <dave@davesergeant.com> wrote:=
=0A=0A> From: Dave Sergeant <dave@davesergeant.com>=0A> Subject: LF: Re: Bi=
g solar flare - major geomagnetic storms to follow=0A> To: rsgb_lf_group@bl=
acksheep.org=0A> Date: Thursday, 8 March, 2012, 13:34=0A> Well it seems the=
 media over here are=0A> going into overdrive (maybe they =0A> have been wa=
tching too many Horizon programs..).=0A> =0A> Impact arrived at 1105z, but =
it was North facing. I see it=0A> has been =0A> downgraded to a G1 minor st=
orm, though the K index has risen=0A> to 5. The =0A> HF bands are still qui=
te lively, plenty of stuff on 12m. So=0A> I expect =0A> this one is really =
going to be a damp squib...=0A> =0A> 73 Dave G3YMC=0A> =0A> On 8 Mar 2012 a=
t 8:10, Warren Ziegler wrote:=0A> =0A> > http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/=
sunearth/news/News030712-X5-4.html=0A> > =0A> > http://spaceweather.com/=0A=
> > =0A> > I imagine that it will take LF a while to recover from=0A> this!=
=0A> > =0A> > Time to get on vhf and work aurora propagation!=0A> >=0A> htt=
p://www.davesergeant.com=0A> =0A> =0A>=0A