From: <hvanesce@comcast.net>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
References: <154c32c4dba-373a-24653@webprd-m58.mail.aol.com>   <5744FA27.6010703@posteo.de> <57F56531.3060205@posteo.de> <5817DE39.9010506@posteo.de> <5818DDAB.7000804@abelian.org> <5819E3AA.3020906@posteo.de> <581A452F.6060506@abelian.org> <581A4BC6.9030106@abelian.org> <581A541E.9050406@abelian.org> <581A8098.8050909@posteo.de> <581C3027.8050003@abelian.org> <581C8660.1070709@posteo.de> <581C90C7.5030809@abelian.org> <581C95BC.6010602@posteo.de> <581DA8E4.5010701@abelian.org> <581DB9C0.10602@posteo.de> <581DCF2E.5090902@abelian.org> <581F9797.9060709@abelian.org> <5824A47D.3060108@posteo.de> <58260EC4.70903@abelian.org> <58261368.60901@posteo.de> <58261772.3050508@abelian.org> <5826BF91.6070907@abelian.org> <5826DB6E.1060000@abelian.org> <58276523.4000204@abelian.org> <5829D9E1.2020801@posteo.de> <582A0BF2.5070101@abelian.org> <582AB6CD.5090603@abelian.org> <582B12B2.7080708@posteo.de> <582B3823.8090504@abelian.org> <582B4466.5070106@abelian.org> <582B6E8B.4090207@posteo.de> <117DEE4AF4DD44F59CB
	455664AD7695B@gnat>
In-Reply-To: <117DEE4AF4DD44F59CB455664AD7695B@gnat>
Date: Tue, 15 Nov 2016 21:46:43 -0500
Message-ID: <046701d23fb3$ab36d900$01a48b00$@comcast.net>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Thread-Index: AQJ90oc5lQ1DEDjBz/gJgc3aX4r/PQFohCzhAo2VCswBsosPXAFMRl2qAjl27Y8CPClefwIukLq+AdPkqDMCPmbpzgJKN8XLA1l2E/ICp6dhjQLVEGuXARS3IF0BneSRawHOkBc1AeI2wMQB11VhjQIhBmgVAjH4OaQBShjcOwJrixAPAejpnW8COOL0IgIMIgXYAvxpUvsB7XF6eALCC2nbAZB7MzQB2gppCgKT+xrbAZjZHkCdb6iosA==
Content-Language: en-us
Subject: RE: VLF: EbNaut transmissions on lower frequencies?, pre-tests: 6.47kHz
Content-Type: text/plain;
	charset="UTF-8"
Sender: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Content-Length: 8109
Status: O

Hello Stefan,

Concurring with Alan and rambling from there:

Of the many (at best rough) methods of predicting or correcting VLF phase (and/or estimating path parameters) at any given time of day, one of the simplest and most accurate (I should say least-inaccurate!) is:
Using an average of the prior three days' phase for the time of day in question, for the same TX-RX path.

Not nearly as accurate but still valuable is using an average of the prior three days' phase for the time of day in question, for a path including the same TX and a second RX between the TX and your RX, even if the second RX is 1000 km to one side or the other of the direct path.  

The above methods generally do not work well for paths shorter than 1,000 km because of the number of significant hops (modes, i.e. modal phase interference nulls) that can be involved.
Standard LWPC would suggest that path lengths greater than 2,000 km are much less complicated from a modal interference standpoint (phase much more stable and estimation of path parameters more feasible), but real data (such as Ferguson Ionospheric Profiles 530) shows that path lengths greater than 2,000 km are just substantially more stable but not dramatically more stable. 

Extrapolating from phase (or height) at one frequency to phase (or height) at another frequency, especially if either of the frequencies is 6 kHz or below, is one of the more difficult approaches for many reasons. For any desired accuracy the complexity of extrapolating across frequencies is particularly high.  

So modeling, predicting and/or correcting based on paths longer than 1,000 km, daytime only (as Alan mentioned), same frequency, using a prior-three-day average of phase for the chosen time of day, from the same receiver, would tend to be productive. Alternatively predicting/correcting using a prior-three-day average from a second receiver between your receiver and the TX would be useful, but much less so than with your own receiver.

Improving on the above by using a network of receivers and transmitters is an excellent idea, especially if machine learning is employed and the (relatively immature) Dst-index and SID-data models are included; but the complexity that Alan mentioned increases substantially at the accuracy levels served by a TX-RX network, so the TX-RX network approach could be a long-term effort.

One possible exception to the notion that a TX-RX network approach could be a long-term effort might be: the possibility that one of the newer machine-learning approaches could by chance be well suited to modeling/prediction/correction using data from a VLF TX-RX network. Practical (low computational burden) machine learning tools have proven effective with systems of sensitivity and degrees of freedom similar to those of VLF propagation. It's hard to imagine that recent generations of machine learning algorithms wouldn’t provide some significant benefit given VLF TX-RX network data to work with, so I have high hopes for many reasons that an RX-TX network will eventually be very effective for modeling/prediction/correction (of height, gradient, phase, and other parameters).

- Jim AA5BW
 

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org [mailto:owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org] On Behalf Of Alan Melia
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2016 4:54 PM
To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org
Subject: Re: VLF: EbNaut transmissions on lower frequencies?, pre-tests: 6.47kHz

Hi Stefan, if I can ramble a bit on this topic.......I think the situation is probably more complex than you are envisaging. I see what your objective is.....you effectively want to characterise the height of the Earth ionospher waveguide over the whole path. However you talk of QSB. Now QSB can only happen on a given route if thereare two paths of different length between the tx and rx. Thus for example take a 10000km path and think about rays rather than waveguide modes. The main mode will be about 5 ionospheric hops, but QSB will occur if there are also signals at the rx which travel by
6 hops. Their phase will be different and will also change differently as the apparent reflection height changes along the path. Another complication is that one or both paths may not be a strict great circle due to tilting of the ionospheric layer.

It may be possible using several source signals to extract parameters of the path. A UK radio amateur astronomer has done this for very short range paths using simultaneous data from Anthorn and Skelton to central England .....but not in real time, and only in daytime when the modelling is easier. Another problem could be that the apparent reflection heights calculated from 23.4kHz data may be different to those in action for frequencies below 8kHz.

It is an interesting challenge. In daytime you have the added complication of a narrower  "waveguide" It may be possible to model a 1000km path (one hop), and test it on that.

Alan
G3NYK


----- Original Message -----
From: "DK7FC" <selberdenken@posteo.de>
To: <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2016 8:22 PM
Subject: Re: VLF: EbNaut transmissions on lower frequencies?, pre-tests: 
6.47kHz


> Hi Paul,
>
> Many thanks for the decodes from these streams. What is the most distant 
> location from where a stream is available?
>
> Interestingly, the phase of my signal is less stable in Bielefeld than on 
> your side. OK, it can be expected but now we saw it.
> So maybe this is an advantage of more distant locations? I remember the 
> VLF grabber of TF3HZ, who received my kite transmission on 8.97 kHz. Maybe 
> he will join in again and even provides a stream? The distance would be 
> 2440 km.
> Probably he is reading this, i would expect :-)
>
> The (unknown) phase stability over a certain path and time is the 
> question. And its reproducibility.
> It looks like we started something here, a thing that could become the 
> trick how to get world wide VLF communication by amateur radio stations. 
> You see i become a bit crazy now ;-)
> Edgar J. Twining is the man i'm thinking about! I know he has the skills, 
> motivation and RX sites to be the man for the unbelivable project. Maybe 
> he is reading this as well.
>
> Now a next question/idea comes up to me: When observing the phase of 
> available signals (DHO38, GBZ, JXN, ALPHAs...), can we conclude to the 
> phase on 6.47 kHz? I mean daily!
> Assume we would try to transfer a message to Australia by using the 
> currently tested technique. Then there will be 'good' and 'not so good' 
> days. Not only different QRN levels, also phase changes may become a 
> problem. If someone, let's say in Tasmania, would run a wideband RDF 
> spectrogram (yes Markus, i know. I will do it soon! Now the time has 
> come!) and can monitor the phase of DHO38 on 23.4 kHz, is this of any use 
> for 6.47 kHz or 8.27 kHz??
> At least it would be most useful to observe the VLF spectrum from there, 
> trying to find some correlations. We need an expert there!
>
>
>
> The linux commands and your vlf utils are a future project for me. It will 
> be a big project i assume. But maybe its better to let me be the one on 
> the TX side.
>
> Am 14.11.2016 20:09, schrieb Paul Nicholson:
>>   11th Nov      3.9   -62.5 -141.2 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  12th Nov      4.9   -59.7 -134.3 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  11th + 12th   6.6   -58.1 -137.5 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  13th Nov      8.5   -55.6 -138.5 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  11th to 13th  8.6   -55.2 -137.8 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  14th          3.5   -61.3 -136.8 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
>>  11th to 14th  9.9   -54.3 -137.6 8K19A   60   4   'TEST'
> Thanks for the table.
> What's the result of 15 th and 11th to 15 th on your side?
>
> Its better not to mix up the day and night transmissions now. The night 
> transmissions are a separate experiment. But if their phase is stable as 
> well, one could correct the phase offset and use them for a decode. So we 
> can simply avoid the time where QSB and the Terminator passes the path. To 
> be checked...
>
> 73, Stefan
>
>
>