Return-Path: Received: (qmail 14968 invoked from network); 20 Jan 2003 23:50:49 -0000 Received: from murphys.services.quay.plus.net (212.159.14.225) by mailstore with SMTP; 20 Jan 2003 23:50:49 -0000 Received: (qmail 15214 invoked from network); 20 Jan 2003 23:50:32 -0000 Received: from post.thorcom.com (193.82.116.70) by murphys.services.quay.plus.net with SMTP; 20 Jan 2003 23:50:32 -0000 X-SQ: A Received: from majordom by post.thorcom.com with local (Exim 4.12) id 18alfj-0001Jl-00 for rsgb_lf_group-outgoing@blacksheep.org; Mon, 20 Jan 2003 23:49:43 +0000 Received: from [194.73.73.92] (helo=carbon.btinternet.com) by post.thorcom.com with esmtp (Exim 4.12) id 18alfj-0001Jc-00 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 20 Jan 2003 23:49:43 +0000 Received: from host213-122-47-243.in-addr.btopenworld.com ([213.122.47.243] helo=Main) by carbon.btinternet.com with smtp (Exim 3.22 #16) id 18alfi-0005Oc-00 for rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org; Mon, 20 Jan 2003 23:49:43 +0000 Message-ID: <003501c2c0de$72f00340$6507a8c0@Main> From: "Alan Melia" To: "LF-Group" Date: Mon, 20 Jan 2003 23:47:24 -0000 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Priority: 3 X-MSMail-Priority: Normal X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1106 Subject: LF: T/A condx Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1; format=flowed Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Spam-Status: No, hits=1.0 required=6.0tests=SPAM_PHRASE_00_01,USER_AGENT_OEversion=2.43 X-Spam-Level: * X-SA-Exim-Scanned: Yes Sender: Precedence: bulk Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org X-Listname: rsgb_lf_group X-SA-Exim-Rcpt-To: rsgb_lf_group-outgoing@blacksheep.org X-SA-Exim-Scanned: No; SAEximRunCond expanded to false Hi all, The Kp index rose to 5 just after midnight 20th, so I am expecting some increase in absorption by about Wed/Thurs 22/23rd night. This should reduce levels of night-time signals for a few days. NOAA is forecasting unsettled geomagnetic conditions by the 22nd due a geoeffective (aiming at us !) coronal hole. If this "burps" it means the depressed period could be prolonged somewhat. We need to keep an eye on Steve's log to see how bad it gets. I think Laurie is right that closer behind a disturbance we can often ride in on a enhancement "wave" due to constructive interference between the different radio paths and get signals at 3 sec dot easily displayed. This Kp increase could be a chance but I suspect it will only be a "beginers wave" unless the Kp rises further. We need to be careful about interpreting Steve's plots regarding UK paths. DCF is 700 or more kms east and Steve is nearly 1000kms west of John. This will influence the timing of the peaks and troughs he sees, and sometimes the maximum levels. In general I believe in a relatively quiet period like we have just had there may be little difference. When we run into a period of more serious multi-path fading Steve's results may diverge from those achieved by John ,Dex and Lloyd. It will be interesting to see by how much. Cheers de Alan G3NYK alan.melia@btinternet.com