Message-ID: <000901c3d94a$be98d440$6507a8c0@Main>
From: "Alan Melia" <Alan.Melia@btinternet.com>
To: "LF-Group" <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Date: Mon, 12 Jan 2004 20:26:50 -0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Subject: LF: Propagation outlook (I hope?)
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Sender: <owner-rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Precedence: bulk
Reply-To: rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org

Hi all, after successfully helping John and Dex to a daytime 1000kms DX qso
under part 15 regs, I am emboldened to make some "predictions" for the
coming week. This time is particularly interesting as both Ed RU6LA and Rich
OM2TW will be at their "big aerial" sites next weekend.

As the weather forecasters say 5 days is a long time.....but, NOAA SEC says
that the coronal hole has moved away and predicts a period of low
geomagnetic activity. Also the sun-spot that produced the M-Class flares
last week has moved away. The activity in early January terminated quite a
long quiet period, and though there are signs of absorbtion and daylight
skywave I do not think the ionisation will take long to decay. The real-time
plot of DCF39 on Steve's W3EEE web site is showing quite good levels despite
the geomag activity. The NOAA report suggests that we will get a few quiet
days for any absorbing material in the D-layer to decay away and leave some
chance of good night-time conditions by next weekend the 16/18th. I am not
sure how good day-time conditions will be, but I expect Ed and Rich's
signals to reach most parts of Europe in daytime. They will of course be
better as the path moves into darkness, which will be about 1300z for Ed,
though it will be 1500z before a substantial amount of the D-layer towards
Europe is in darkness.

Good Luck all
Cheers de Alan G3NYK
alan.melia@btinternet.com