Message-ID: <000001c166ee$395054a0$144d01d5@default>
From: "Alan Melia" <Alan.Melia@btinternet.com>
To: "LF-Group" <rsgb_lf_group@blacksheep.org>
Subject: LF: Propagation
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2001 16:33:54 -0000
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Hi all, there were lots of deep fades in the daytime DCF plot from Brian
CT1DRP for yesterday (5th Nov). The best day for daylight DX looks like it
might have been Sunday 4th with DCF39 levels at CT1DRP up some 15 to 20 dB
over normal.

The nightime levels on this path have not really  recovered yet but there
are short periods of quite reasonable strength. One should be cautious at
trying to relate these conditions to the Transatlantic path, because I
suspect that the DCF39<>CT1DRP path at 1950kms is one hop (i.e.one traverse
of the still absorbing D-layer) whilst the Eu to VE path is undoubtedly 2
hops so the signal must make two traverses through a very absorbing D-layer.
So peak levels will not be so good until later in the event.

There was a massive and still rising (0000z Monday) proton flux from
Sunday's Flare, and the CME from the previous event arrived at about 1800z
last night (Monday) producing very widely seen aurora. This CME will affect
the LF conditions on or around Thursday , but a big CME from Sunday's flare
should arrive by about Wednesday 7th and will start to have an effect on the
LF bands by about  Saturday or Sunday. It looks as though Sunday the 11th
could well be another good day for daytime DX. I suspect that the
transatlantic path will be generally indifferent during this period......BUT
the multipath that is produced when the absorption falls off can lead to
very high peaks but for rather shorter periods maybe 30 to 45 minutes. I
suggest during this period you could throw a little S/N away in order to get
call letters completed in 20 to 30 minutes. If its bad you wont be heard
(seen!) anyway but if it is good you will get all the call letters
over.....just a thought.
( I shall have to dunk the rabbits paw in paracetamol as its looking a bit
shell-shocked after that lot)

Happy hunting
Cheers de Alan G3NYK
alan.melia@btinternet.com